Submitted by David Kuan11.17.2008
Thunderdome
Loading...
News149027Salesforce's
Categories
This prediction is closed and has been judged.
Judgment made on January 7, 2009: During this time frame, the Dow failed to drop below 10%. Whew. The closest it came was on Oct. 15 when it dropped 733 points for a 7.87% change. The community guessed correctly. -- The Industry Standard
Original prediction: Black October struck again and the global economy is in a crisis of historical proportions.
The week of October 6 to October 10 presents the worst week ever in the equity market worldwide. An 18% drop in DJIA, a 24% drop in Nikkei 225, and a 21% drop in FTSE 100.
DJIA has also experienced large daily losses in the past few weeks.
Note the top ten single-day drops in the table below.
| Rank | Date | Close | Net Change | % Change |
| 1 | 1987-10-19 | 1,738.74 | -508.00 | -22.61 |
| 2 | 1929-10-28 | 260.64 | -38.33 | -12.82 |
| 3 | 1929-10-29 | 230.07 | -30.57 | -11.73 |
| 4 | 1929-11-06 | 232.13 | -25.55 | -9.92 |
| 5 | 1899-12-18 | 58.27 | -5.57 | -8.72 |
| 6 | 1932-08-12 | 63.11 | -5.79 | -8.40 |
| 7 | 1907-03-14 | 76.23 | -6.89 | -8.29 |
| 8 | 1987-10-26 | 1,793.93 | -156.83 | -8.04 |
| 9 | 1933-07-21 | 88.71 | -7.55 | -7.84 |
| 10 | 1937-10-18 | 125.73 | -10.57 | -7.75 |
PREDICTION: At least a 10% single-day drop in Dow Jones Industrial Average between October 10 and end of 2008.
Price History
Prediction Statistics
| Betting Closes: | Dec 31 2008 | Current Consensus: | 7.94% | Total Bets: | 15 |
| Today's Change: | 0% | ||||
| Life Time High: | 48.75% | ||||
| Life Time Low: | 7.94% |
Comments
Close but not close enough. DJIA dropped about 680 points today which is about 7.7%.
Did not happen. Unfavorable judgment can now be rendered.
Post new comment