Microsoft's struggle to innovate and lead on the 'Net

Ian Lamont — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 06:08:54 -0700

Steve Ballmer gave an interesting talk at the Churchill Club yesterday. He touched upon many topics, but what really caught my attention was the discussion of what Microsoft is doing with search. The following is an excerpt from Eric Savitz's live account of Ballmer's talk:

"Steve steers the conversation to search, 'the nub of the question.' Has 9% share in the U.S. Google’s share in U.S. is lower than in other countries. It will take us a while -- there is a lot we need to do. Started from nowhere 4 years ago. Done a lot to differentiate in image search, news, others. Made lot of progress, but have to still fundamentally reinvent the search business model.'

Let's put that in the context of the history of search, based on some dates from John Battelle's book "The Search":

1994-1996: Early search platforms developed by Open Text, Alta Vista, others

1998-1999: Google is founded, quickly dominates market with superior search technology

2001: Google launches AdWords

2003: Google launches AdSense

The last date in the timeline is 2004. That's when Microsoft finally got serious about search, according to Ballmer. In other words, the real push from Redmond only came years after Google had established marketplace dominance, demonstrated its influence over the hundreds of millions of people using the Internet, and proved that search could be the basis of a lucrative business.

To many, Microsoft's delayed entrance into search is proof that large, established software companies can never outmaneuver younger, more nimble competitors, much less establish themselves as leaders in developing cutting-edge technologies. I think that's unfair. Microsoft's Photosynth tool, which can turn scanned 2D photographs into 3D models of real-world places, is truly innovative. Yesterday at the Emerging Technology conference at MIT, I saw several prototype "Spatial Web" applications that use Photosynth in a demonstration. Microsoft's Chief Research and Strategy Officer Craig Mundie also used his keynote to explain how the company is exploring new user interfaces based on immersive 3D environments, "surface" computing, and other technologies. Microsoft is trying hard to develop a "NUI to replace the GUI," Mundie noted.

While impressive, Mundie's demonstrations did not include any ground-breaking Internet innovations. Photosynth, tabletop computers, and a visual programming language for robotics may prove to be revolutionary software and hardware technologies, but they are not revolutionary Internet technologies. Mundie did reference potential Internet applications using cloud computing and shared 3D worlds, but these ideas were pioneered by other people and companies. Just like search, Microsoft is finally waking up to the potential of the Internet in these areas, but years after others have shown the way.

Earlier this year, when Microsoft was making a play for Yahoo, I observed that the Internet is not in Microsoft's DNA. Ballmer's acknowledgement of Microsoft's slow move into search, and Mundie's demonstrations at EmTech indicate that it continues to struggle to establish itself as a true leader in Internet innovation.

Image: Technology Review video

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