Analyst Charlie Wolf thinks Apple is gonna sell a bazillion iPhones

Jordan Golson — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 14:47:55 -0700

Needham & Co. tech analyst Charles Wolf thinks Apple will sell 30 million iPhones next year -- and has set an updated price target of $240.

In a briefing detailed on 9to5Mac.com, Wolf said he sees the worldwide installed base of iPhone users reaching 150 million over the next 10 years.

Wolf feels Apple dropping the iPhone's price will drive huge sales of the iPhone in the next few years, and he thinks the iPhone 3G will sell 14 million units in the US next year, grabbing 7 percent of the US mobile phone market. He also believes international iPhone sales will total 15.6 million, for a total sales number just south of 30 million in 2009.

In addition, Wolf predicts the iPhone will cannibalize the iPod market by as much as 30 percent as more consumers consolidate their digital devices.

The upshot of all this? More Mac sales. I have long said that everything Steve Jobs and Apple does is to sell more Macs, as computers are the main driver of the company's profits. Wolf thinks Apple will sell millions more machines in the coming years because of the "halo effect" of the iPhone and iPod.

"In the PC era, the adage was 'software drives hardware'. Software applications, which made the PC truly useful, became a major driver of hardware sales. Will the same thing happen in the smartphone industry? Our bet is that it will."

Noting that making long-term predictions on units sold is more of an art than a science -- maybe more darts than an art? -- Wolf says "it's not possible to say whether our forecast of worldwide iPhone sales of 63 million units in 2017 is outrageously aggressive or outrageously conservative."

You got that right, Charlie.

(Above photo of Charlie Wolf kissing Newsweek columnist Dan Lyons by Jordan Golson)

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