Developing countries drive mobile growth in Southeast Asia

The number of mobile phone subscribers in Southeast Asia is expected to break the 453.3 million-mark by the end of the year, an 18.4 per cent jump from last year, said analyst firm Frost & Sullivan.

Findings from the 2009 Southeast Asia Wireless Outlook indicated that billings have been estimated to grow by 13.6 per cent year-on-year to top US$32 billion by year-end.

The growth is mostly driven by first-time subscribers as networks continue to expand beyond major urban areas, as well as the increase in data usage and higher-end services brought on by 3G.

"Growing markets such as Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, with mobile penetration well below 75 per cent and even lower fixed broadband penetration, are likely to see growth in new subscriber additions," said Frost & Sullivan industry analyst Shaker Amin. He added that these users are predominantly low-ARPU (average revenue per user) prepaid subscribers.

According to Amin, mobile usage in these growing markets will continue to be dominated by voice and basic text messaging services. "Although 3G will be making its entry into many of these markets, it will be some years still before 3G services become commonplace," said Amin.

In saturated markets such as Singapore and Malaysia, growth will be largely fuelled by user migration to 3G, mobile broadband uptake and generally, the higher consumer appetite for mobile content and data services, said Amin.

Meanwhile, operators in developing countries are betting big on 3G. "As operators compete fiercely to enrol new subscribers, 3G will be the technology to eventually deliver [mobile] broadband to the rural communities that are not likely to ever receive fixed broadband access," said Amin. Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam each have no less than six mobile operators while Indonesia has the most with 11.