Amazon has called a press conference for February 9, and rumors are swirling that the company will announce the latest version of its Kindle reader, which people are calling Kindle 2.0.
Never mind that Amazon has refused to comment on whether this event actually relates to a new Kindle, but speculation is rampant. The last time Amazon held this type of press conference it announced the original Kindle. The rumors are fueled by changes in the estimated ship dates from three months to 3 to 5 weeks, which some speculate indicates that the old Kindle was obsolete, and photos that were released by The Boy Genius Report of the supposed new design of the Kindle 2.0.
The Standard Prediction Market hasn’t always been so sure that these rumors were heading anywhere, however. A look at the rolling price history index shows a peak of 86% community consensus on January 28, after the publication of a number of stories about the pending Kindle launch, including this piece from the New York Times. But throughout the week, the probability of this prediction coming to pass slowly declined before hitting a low of 61% on February 2.
But in the past day, the community consensus has swung back up, growing more than 16% today. It now lies at 81%. This leap follows a day of stellar news about the Kindle, including reports that the Kindle sold more units than the iPod in its first year, and estimates that revenue from the Kindle could grow to $1.2 billion by 2010.
So -- will Bezos announce the new Kindle 2.0 on February 9? Or will this simply be a price-cut announcement, making the reader available to a wider range of consumers? Will the press conference be a New York Times bailout attempt? Are we going to hear about a Kindle software upgrade? Is this the day that Kindle will kill the print model forever? Or will that Bezos-themed amusement park finally come to pass?
What do you think will happen February 9? Leave your comments below, or considering making your prediction today.
Melissa Chang (@mchang16) is the president of Pure Incubation, and her blog can be found at www.16thletter.com. Chang writes about The Industry Standard Prediction Market as part of an ongoing series. She’s betting that Oprah’s getting a new Kindle 2.0 on February 9.
Comments
I own a Kindle and have had it for over a year. When I tried to get a replacement battery last November, I was told that Amazon had run out of them and didn't know when one would be available. I canceled my NY Times subscription and haven't used the Kindle or the books on it since. I think everyone who uses the Kindle should know about this type of "customer service." Would you buy anything if you couldn't replace the fuel that runs it? I am skeptical to say the least.
@Patricia, totally agree - I feel the same way about Apple's decision to do this with their new laptops and built-in batteries. Then again, I own an iPhone which follows the same philosophy. . . It is annoying, though.
@Patricia - No doubt that you're skeptical after that! Although your story does seem to add some validity (or at least a personal account) to the claim that Amazon wasn't shipping the Kindle (or its parts) in the last part of 2008 as it prepared for the next version of the reader to be released.
@Melissa, for a brief moment, the consensus dropped below 40% on Feb 2 (which is lower than the 61% depicted in the chart). I took advantage of that drop as my bet re-entry point :)
There are also potential announcements on Feb 9 is this blog has any merit. Apparently, the same site has been tracking the probability of the Kindle 2.0 although a bit outdated. A rather interesting analysis is also available of Kindle 1.0 sales vs that of iPod. The figure is fairly close to that of the Citi analyst.
Just posted a prediction suggestion for the pricing of Kindle 2.0
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