No clear sign of settlement in Oracle-SAP suit

Observers who have been following the case said Monday said it would make sense for the parties to settle -- something they have tried and failed to do before.

"What I found telling was how many times the [SAP] answer said 'we admit or we agree with what Oracle said,'" said Eric Goldman, an associate professor of law at the Santa Clara University School of Law and director of the school's High Tech Law Institute. "They didn't do it that much, but most answers deny everything. That's very unusual to see in an answer."

At the same time, "it's good to see that they've both found something they can agree on," Goldman said.

It would be "unbelievable" if the companies weren't having settlement talks, given the likely multimillion dollar cost of the litigation, he said.

Oracle has not provided a specific damage demand but has said the figure could top US$1 billion.

"That sounds like a really big number, but SAP could just decide to afford it," Goldman said. "They have the financial wherewithal to pay something like that without it devastating them." But there's also good reason for SAP to delay the settlement process and try to bring that number down, he added.

It has been speculated that Oracle is willing to keep the suit alive simply for the perceived public relations benefit.

In contrast, there is no "upside for SAP in this litigation hanging around," Goldman said. "They don't look good. They might not look bad, but they don't look good."

Jon Reed, an independent analyst who monitors SAP skills trends and runs the Web site JonERP.com, compared the suit to a "high-stakes poker game."

"Oracle has the better hand this time around. If you use the poker analogy, knowing that shouldn't you just fold your hand?" he said.

However, "the thing about this stuff is that you can't just expect logic to dictate behavior, because personalities and egos get involved," he added.

In paying out a settlement to its bitter rival, SAP executives would have to take a hit to their pride, as well as allow Oracle the "marketing juice" it would gain from such an outcome, he said.

However, "maybe they're so far away on the [settlement] numbers that sanity has to prevail on one side or another," Reed added.