After the iPhone was launched in June 2007, sales were brisk -- even for a phone that many criticized for missing "essential" features like GPS, 3G data and a way to run third-party applications effectively.
Apple sold 1.1 million and 2.3 million in the third and fourth calendar quarters of that year, respectively. Not bad for an upstart phone from a company that had never sold a mobile phone before. Indeed, the growth lines for the iPhone mirror those for the BlackBerry -- though Apple was starting from almost nothing, so its percentage gains were significantly higher.
Then, in Q1 and Q2, availability of the iPhone dropped significantly and buying slowed because of seasonal purchasing habits and the expectation of a new and improved iPhone introduction.
For Q3, however, sales of the iPhone 3G exceeded almost all expectations. Apple sold nearly 7 million iPhones in the quarter, beating BlackBerry sales for the first time -- and if you were to simply ignore the Q1 and Q2 numbers, as in the chart below, a very steady growth curve (one steeper than RIM's) emerges.
In fact, if the iPhone growth curve had been consistent through all quarters (using hypothetical numbers of course), Apple would have sold 3.5 million iPhones in Q1 and 5.15 million iPhones in Q2. In this fictitious example, quarter-over-quarter sales growth is slowing, but still reflects 33 percent growth from Q2 to Q3 -- and I would expect similar growth going into the holiday season.
What's it all mean? For Apple, the iPhone is a resounding success -- for other phone makers: well, they've been put on notice.
Comments
Thank you for the article Jordan.
"and if you were to simply ignore the Q1 and Q2 numbers, as in the chart below..." Is it appropriate to ignore 2 quarters of a product that has been around ~1.5 years? Moreover, the 2nd chart reflects ~6M more additional iPhone units (cumulative) than the 1st chart.
-Marc
You're reading far too much into it. There's not enough data to just draw a best-fit line to fill in the blanks. The fact is, the iPhone is more likely following the iPod sales trend, where the Xmas quarter is 50 to 100% higher than other quarters, with the other 3 quarters being relatively the same.
Look at the iPod sales graphs by quarter for an idea.
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