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Jordan Golson

Is Google's Android dead before it arrives?

Jordan Golson07.14.2008
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Google is a huge company. The latest numbers peg the big G at close to 20,000 employees. It's enough to make one wonder -- what do they do all day?

The vast majority of the company's revenue comes from search advertising via Google's AdWords program -- 98% of revenue, in fact, comes from advertising. Unfortunately for co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Google is a bit of a one-trick pony at the moment -- at least when it comes to revenue. Though it has its hands in a lot of cookie jars, the company hasn't been able to bring any significant revenue to its other ventures -- even after significant purchases like YouTube and product rollouts like Gmail.

Luckily for Google management, the company makes enough money -- $1.3 billion in net income last quarter alone -- to fund all manner of projects in an attempt to, as the Google mission statement says,"organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful."

Google's Android cell phone project falls, presumably, under the "universally accessible" portion of that statement. For months, Android has mostly been rumor. After Apple brought the original iPhone out, there was rampant speculation that Google would bring out a "gPhone" that would compete with Apple, but it was not to be. Google and Apple seem to be significant partners against common-enemy Microsoft. Indeed, Google's CEO, Eric Schmidt, has a seat on Apple's board.

It doesn't make much sense for Google to come out with one gPhone. Android has always been about launching an "open" platform that any company could develop software or hardware for -- with Google in the middle connection everyone and their information. For Google to get into the consumer electronics industry seems to be a non-starter, given their lack of experience in that sector.

At least Apple had experience with the iPod, and the Macintosh before that, to go on when rolling out the iPhone. The closest that Google has in the hardware sales department is its rack-mounted search appliance.

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Google and Apple did differ in their strategies for rolling out their mobile platforms. For years, Apple worked on the hardware and software in-house. This allowed them to get the platform working and into the hands of customers before rolling it out to developers.

Android has no existing hardware yet, and as a result, no public adoption. A new platform is like a baby plant. It needs love and nurturing to grow into a large bush -- love that Google is not giving it.

As a result of that -- and a lack of existing support from Google, developers are angry. They've even formed a petition.

Some developers are threatening to switch to iPhone or Windows Mobile. One compares releasing apps for a platform with millions of users "versus ZERO install base for Android. It's not a hard decision to make."

Here's our question: Why would they start developing for Android at all? Especially when revenue -generating opporunities are years away, at best? And the product is from a company that regularly launches products and then just as regularly leaves them to die?

Come on Google. Give it up. It's clear that you don't have the wherewithal to follow through with any product besides search. Not that there's anything wrong with that -- after all, that's where the money is. But please, don't leave everyone -- users, developers and shareholders -- hanging in the lurch.

More news, commentary, and predictions from The Industry Standard:

  • Prediction: Google invests $1 billion in Facebook
  • Prediction: Apple will ship 10 million iPhones in 2008
  • Special Feature: The iPhone naysayers, one year later
  • Special Feature: Where are they now? The Industry Standard tracks down

Comments

YES!

But ZunePhone is on the way!

http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com


Is anything actually popular because it's based on open standards? You could argue TVs or DVD players are but these are real appliances designed to do a specific job, not an open platform for geeks to guess what that job could be. I can't think of a single IT success story in this area. Maybe because technical standards incite initiatives that are technology-driven the outcomes are rarely useful to normal people whereas proprietary products tend to have a point so have to aim higher in the first place.

Why would the general public pay for a 'platform' as opposed to a real product? Windows may be a good example but how long before people realise it isn't that useful? Are people still fooled by choice and plausible speculation vs a useful product?

McD


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