On his blog, Intel marketing manager Gregory Ofili has outlined an optimistic pricing plan for WiMAX that would blast traditional mobile and ISP voice and data packages into oblivion by providing most of their combined services for as low as $50 per month:
"Year 2008 - With My Personal WiMAX Service, Cost of electronic communications/information = approx ($50 - $100)
Home Broadband (WiMAX)........................Included
Cell Phone Service (WiMAX Mobile VoIP) ........................Included
Home phone service (WiMAX VoIP) ........................Included
Mobile Broadband (Mobile WiMAX)........................Included
Cable or Sat TV: Not applicable (I get much of my content online)
International Calling........................Included
Video phone service........................Included"
You read that right: $50-$100 for broadband, home phone, plus mobile voice and data.
If it sounds too good to be true, that's because it is. Ofili’s estimate neglects to account for the challenges (and costs) of launching and supporting a WiMAX network on a broad scale. Nor does it address certain content issues, or, for that matter, the opposition of mobile and cable networks.
In this country, ISPs, cable, and cellular networks have demonstrated a rich tradition of anticompetitive spirit and a reluctance to adopt new technology, making it unlikely that big providers (or small startups) will be selling a WiMAX services anytime soon. In fact, AT&T only just started providing 3G support, an expensive rollout that was required for the new iPhone 3G. Networks won’t be looking to abandon technology which was just implemented, in favor of installing even more hardware and licensing new spectrums to support an entirely new service technology. A more profitable business plan would focus instead, on maximizing hardware already installed -- for mobile phone service providers, that would be 2.5 and 3G networks. For ISPs and cable companies, maintaining lucrative cable franchises and rolling out fiber are priorities. And while Sprint has mentioned that it has considered a partnership with Clearwire to develop WiMAX services, and Nokia plans on releasing WiMAX-compatible tablets, no service provider has announced it intends to make Ofili’s ultra-cheap WiMAX bundle a reality.
Then again, in a rare moment of corporate initiative, providers could adopt and install the technology, implement it in new handsets, and rake in legions of happy customers with lower bills, new features (like video chat), and the fastest wireless data network in the world.
But I would expect something like that to happen right after Apple decides to license OS X for PCs.
More news, commentary, and predictions from The Industry Standard:
Comments
"In this country, ISPs, cable, and cellular networks have demonstrated a rich tradition of anticompetitive spirit and a reluctance to adopt new technology"
The ISP, Cable, and Cellular networks are behind WiMAX. Clearwire consortium = Sprint + Time Warner + Comcast + Clearwire + Intel + Google. The cable/ISP companies are behind this because they know wide-range wireless broadband will put them out of business, so they have to adopt this technology. So your first argument is void.
"In fact, AT&T only just started providing 3G support, an expensive rollout that was required for the new iPhone 3G. Networks won’t be looking to abandon technology which was just implemented, in favor of installing even more hardware and licensing new spectrums to support an entirely new service technology."
AT&T shouldn't even be mentioned because they are clearly anti-WiMAX in favor of their own LTE 4G technology rolling out in the 2011-2013 range. Problem is they were 2-3 years behind Sprint with 3G and will be with 4G. Don't let their slow adoption be a knock on the whole industry. The devices that are going to run on WiMAX aren't necessarily devices that exist today, meaning there is no technology & standards to abandon. WiMAX is about wireless broadband, it's about replacing your traditional ISP, not specifically cell phone service (AT&T and Verizon will dominate that market for years to come). WiMAX is about devices like the Kindle, laptops, an iPod WiMAX Touch (aka: iPhone killer), Android devices, Utility meters, traffic sensors, emergency personnel, IPTV, Internet radios, portable Netflix players, YouTube video cameras, Justin.TV, location aware social networks, etc...
"no service provider has announced it intends to make Ofili’s ultra-cheap WiMAX bundle a reality."
Ofili wasn't talking about the masses (hint.. "My Personal WiMAX Service"), but he was talking about the early adopters. So yes, a laptop + WiMAX takes care of everything on that list.
The only hitch to this plan is the assumption that Sprint does the rollout properly, and we'll just have to wait a couple years to make that judgment. If it does, Ofili is right and Intel is rich.
I agree with Derek's comment concerning AT&T. They're slow to adopt any new generation of mobile data service and Sprint (in USA) has been on the bleeding edge. I believe Sprint/Clearwire WiMAX rollout will be the guage for additional carriers (a.k.a. Verizon Wireless) to adopt a WiMAX upgrade path. If you built it...WiMAX devices will come.
Post new comment