Opinion: 10 'Net services that will succeed (and 10 that will probably fail)

The World Wide Web exploded across the public consciousness nearly 15 years ago, and in that time, thousands of high-profile Internet startups have come and gone. The bursting of the first 'Net bubble was particularly brutal, forcing a slew of young companies and their founders into bankruptcy and wiping out billions in investments. Still, a number of '90s-era startups not only managed to survive, they also managed to prosper.

Now another shakeout is looming, particularly in the crowded Web 2.0 field. The Industry Standard has documented many of the challenges facing new and established Internet companies today (see The impact of Bear Stearns' collapse on entrepreneurs, and Chavez, China, and the coming startup squeeze), and in the following pages and in the accompanying slideshow and predictions we're going to name some of the services that we think have stellar futures, as well as those we think are destined for obscurity -- or oblivion. Most fall under the Web 2.0 umbrella. There are a few additional products and software tools that aren't Web 2.0, but are based on or complement Internet and wireless network technologies.

Twitter, Joost, and some of the other names on the list of probable failures will no doubt come as a surprise to many readers. But if we learned anything in the last 'Net bubble, it is this: Positive buzz, gold-star VC backing, breathless acquisition chatter and a solid base of registered members are not guarantees of success. Press hype and 'Net buzz have a way of turning nasty. Investors can cut off funding, or steer entrepreneurs down the wrong path. Acquisitions can be mismanaged, or left to wither and die. Revenue might fail to reach a critical mass. The public decides to switch its attention to the Next Cool Thing.

A corollary to this is the fact that successful services often operate under the radar and prove themselves over time by creating compelling, unique products and sustainable business models. Ten years ago, many people considered Google to be just another search engine in a sea of prominent competitors. Google's young founders and investors were viewed with curiosity -- portals and banner advertising were obviously the wave of the future, why didn't they get it? Similarly, some of the companies in The Standard's list of successes may not be household names, but we think they are catching the leading edge of new 'Net trends, or offer services and business models that have long-term potential.

If you think The Standard is missing the mark, register to leave your comments or bet against the associated predictions from The Standard's unique prediction market. To read the capsule reviews and see screenshots of the services, start on page one of our slideshow.. You can also read the full article summaries, which contain links to predictions and additional views from around the Web.

Ian Lamont is the author of The Social Enterprise blog on TheStandard.com. Comment below, or email Ian at ian@thestandard.com. Follow Ian's updates on Twitter at http://twitter.com/ilamont, or visit his personal blog. Ian's bio and disclosures are located here.