The AtHome-Excite (ATHM) deal may have thrown some people for a loop, but we're betting that more unpredictable Net marriages will follow. Here's a peek at what could be inside the shopping carts of the Internet Economy's leading players ...
Shopper: Microsoft (MSFT)
Possible Target: Lycos (LCOS)
Thanks to the serendipitous confession of a Lycos veep last week, it's now official: Lycos is negotiating. Lycos ostensibly wants a deal in which a partner takes a 20 percent stake. Don't be surprised if Microsoft takes the whole enchilada.
Shopper: CBS (dossier)
Possible Target: LookSmart (LOOK)
CBS will certainly enter the portal wars. But how? A few weeks ago, The Standard speculated about CBS buying Yahoo, or maybe vice versa (Dec. 28, 1998 - Jan. 4, 1999). With Yahoo priced at $30 billion-plus, it's just not likely. Other networks have tried to buy into portals on the cheap: NBC chose to go with a build-it-yourself kit (Snap), and Disney engineered a deal with Infoseek (dossier), in which Infoseek practically paid to be bought.
Shopper: America Online (dossier)
Possible Target: eBay (EBAY)
Just because AOL (dossier) ended 1998 with a bang, don't expect the fireworks to end there. EBay is to the garage sale what AOL is to the home PC. Combine the two and you've got Main Street, USA. The online auctioneer has already cozied up with AOL in a three-year, $12 million distribution deal. AOL could own the auction market by adding eBay to its portfolio.
Shopper: Yahoo
Possible Target: GeoCities
Yahoo has demonstrated that it can create active forums on the Net without a big outlay of cash. But it lacks a home-page-hosting service - a feature considered de rigueur for Web "communities." Meanwhile, both GeoCities and Yahoo count Japanese holding company Softbank as a major backer - which makes them members of the same familia.
Shopper: Bertelsmann (dossier)
Possible Target: CDnow (dossier)/N2K
Three cheers for "disintermediation"! Remember how publishers were going to replace stores in the brave new world of the Net? It can still work. Take four parts Bertelsmann, one part CDnow and you've got a plausible combination. The bonus is that Bertelsmann owns half of Barnesandnoble.com, soon to go public. If Bertelsmann makes more acquisitions, look for a deal in which much of the price is paid in Barnesandnoble.com stock.
Shopper: Amazon.com (AMZN)
Possible Target: Xoom
No players have yet followed Yahoo - the proud new owner of Web marketing company Yoyodyne - into the new world of direct mail on the Web, but no doubt many will. Russell Klein, an analyst at Broadview Associates, suggests a natural match for Amazon.com is Xoom, which combines a good direct marketing platform with portal features.
Shopper: Charles Schwab
Possible Target: Datek Online
Let's face it, our friendly discount broker is an Internet company. With more than 60 percent of its business transactions taking place online in the most recent quarter, Schwab has to face it, too. In combination with Datek it would make up nearly 50 percent of the market and leave other players scrambling. The day trader meets the Roth IRA online?
- Megan Barnett and Mark Gimein
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Correction: In an earlier version of this story, Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati was identified as AtHome's law firm. In fact, the firm represented AtHome only on this deal. Fenwick & West is AtHome's law firm of record. |
