The Industry Standard - Prediction - Comments

That was mostly my pulling

Bradley Baker — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 17:34:33 -0700

That was mostly my pulling out a very sizeable bet I made a couple of months ago when I was hoping it would hit after July's numbers.

Here are some details

David Kuan — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 15:37:01 -0700

Here are some details described at http://news.zdnet.co.uk/software/0,1000000121,39160417,00.htm about MSFT abandoning SAP acquisition. It was a multitude of reasons ...
1) Acquisition would prove too complex (result of their due diligence analysis)
2) It may have compromised MSFT backing of its service partners.
3) Change of focus on small business markets
It is unlikely that MSFT will reengage on SAP acquisition unless there are significant market factors change.

"The decision to suspend the

Eric Hill684799 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 15:37:00 -0700

"The decision to suspend the client is likely to be announced soon, I am told." -- Giga Om. The title says "announce". It's obvious (and has been for months) that Joost is playing catch-up as fast as they can. Stories have leaked that the official announcement is very close.

Shall we say that since the closed beta has been quietly rolled out to a lucky few that Joost has implicitly announced the demise of the client software? I think we all know how this prediction is going to close. Question is: 1) when and 2) should we hold this prediction to a different standard? I'm just asking.

@Bradley, it does not look

David Kuan — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 15:13:30 -0700

@Bradley, it does not look good indeed. However, a favorable decision can only be made after Dec 31. That is about 4 months away ... long time for ROI to have your $ frozen. You must have put in a sizable bet to swing it 30%+.

According to Compete.com, August Plurk metric is Visits = 1,378,206 and Unique visitors = 247,012 For an unfavorable judgement (which can occur after each monthly stat provided by Compete.com), it would require Plurks metric for Visits = 2,973,937 or Unique visitors = 515,177 (within 1% of Twitter's metrics). Plurk is continuing to enhance user experience (http://blog.plurk.com/). With 4 months to go, it is not entirely impossible but not as likely as it was since June either.

Think I will stay sideline on this one since I have no $ that I could/would park for 4 months.

As far as screenshot proofs

Bradley Baker — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:46:24 -0700

As far as screenshot proofs are concerned, TechCrunch has a video of the beta up on their site.

All kinds of news stories spawned off of the articles here on TIS and on Om Malik.

Note that TIS has a separate

Bradley Baker — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:36:34 -0700

Note that TIS has a separate article up about the closed beta.

http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/09/05/web-based-joost-player-closed...

Plurk has slumped each of

Bradley Baker — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:29:33 -0700

Plurk has slumped each of the past two months. If it gets another jump like the May->June one it can still hit these targets, but that's looking unlikely.

TIS has an article up right

Bradley Baker — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 12:52:10 -0700

TIS has an article up right now confirming the plans.

http://www.thestandard.com/news/2008/09/05/joost-desktop-client-toast

We already met the

David Kuan — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 12:13:14 -0700

We already met the announcement criteria (http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/joost_ceo_we_ve_figured_it_out_this_t... and http://blog.joost.com/2008/06/joost_forums_going_down.html) . The screenshots (I have provided) showed that it is not vaporware and as such should have met the "definite plan" criteria.

So, the closed beta that you

Eric Hill684799 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:33:00 -0700

So, the closed beta that you folks have received is not an official "announcement" per the prediction's requirements. This definitely seems to have taken the prediction much closer to resolution, but Joost currently is only confirming that, "a small number of people are testing a "new product.""

@Eric, I have it working. I

David Kuan — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 09:54:40 -0700

@Eric, I have it working. I can send you multiple screenshots (to show the progression from logging on to viewing a video). Hang tight. Will send them once I capture the shots.

@Bradley, would you be able

Eric Hill684799 — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 09:01:22 -0700

@Bradley, would you be able to send me the screenshot? I have the original beta - not access to the closed one you speak of. Thanks!

See

David Kuan — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 06:59:40 -0700

See http://thestandard.com/news/2008/09/04/briefly-predicted-niche-social-ne.... Looks like there has been some due diligence done to validate this.

Looks like final bids are

David Kuan — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:56:01 -0700

Looks like final bids are now going to happen late September or early October. That means, winner selection may occur in October but will takes about 1-2 months to be ratified by MLB .

It still doesn't look positive for Cuban at this point as he has yet to secure Chicagoan business support in his bid. If MVC Capital (not part of the final 5) decides to join Klaff's group, then Cuban chances diminishes even more. There is a chance MVC Capital may join Cuban's bid.

@TIS, can a judgment be made when the winner is announced but before it is ratified or do we have to wait until ratification which makes official the winner.

$31/share doesn't look at

Bradley Baker — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 18:06:16 -0700

$31/share doesn't look at that bad now, huh Jerry....

Not to mention the $33/share sweetened offer.