The Industry Standard - Blog - Comments

What happened to April's

David Kuan — Tue, 19 May 2009 23:54:32 -0400

What happened to April's stats?

It is great to see more

David Kuan — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 21:49:19 -0400

It is great to see more non-top 10 doing outstanding prognosticating. Congrats to all!

Hats off to you, Marc! Now

David Kuan — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 10:57:54 -0500

Hats off to you, Marc! Now that you have achieved the uber status, the difficulty begins on how to best managed your significant networth.and ROI becomes a much more significant aspect in your bet decision making.

Way to go Edward. Congrats!

David Kuan — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 21:54:19 -0500

Way to go Edward. Congrats! That auto bail bet did you good :)

You would maintain your

Eric Hill113600 — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 20:43:06 -0500

You would maintain your status either way we go - don't worry about that. Your historical data will be used in some form or fashion (if we change it at all).

Wiping the slate clean?

David Kuan — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 22:10:03 -0500

Wiping the slate clean? Ouch! After all those months of "hard" work :(

A simple solution to control distortion of consensus is to set a max bet limit per prediction (i.e. 500K). Having many more predictions in play would help. Yi-Wyn is doing a fine job with recent daily additions. Also, here is a suggestion ... adjust the formulas to weigh a new unique bet (i.e. different member) more than additional funds to a member's bet. (i.e. suppose I have placed a $200K "AGAINST" bet but decides to add $200K to it. The consensus would drop less than if a new member's "AGAINST" bet of $200K. It may be more complicated in the background that it may seem.

Incidentally, we're working

Eric Hill113600 — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 11:46:29 -0500

Incidentally, we're working on the next version of the prediction market. It is going to take a few months to roll out, but when it does... let's just say we're pretty excited to get it out as fast as we can, but it's going to take a little time.

That being said, we are considering wiping the slate clean when that day arrives (some people have become so powerful with prediction market 1.0 that the "consensus" is easily distorted).

I'll be sure to keep an open channel of communication before any drastic changes, however.

I want to point out that the

Eric Hill113600 — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 11:44:10 -0500

I want to point out that the % gain column is built with a margin for everyone, so the calculation actually takes that into consideration when calculating the percentage for ranking. There are different calculations being performed behind that scenes that are weighing "scores" that are not public, and these scores factor into the percentages. Regardless, I think the net worth gains are interesting for people to see, even if the score % gain is slightly different.

Not sure if this clarification helps or confuses, but wanted to put that out there for all the math geeks that instantly recognized the percentage didn't seem to add up. It does, just behind the scenes.

Wow! I was expecting

David Kuan — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:54:04 -0500

Wow! I was expecting somewhere in the lower half of top ten. Quite surprised actually. Yet, despite this, Bradley's juggernaut networth is still not within reach :(

I am eager to see December numbers. I think I might have topped my Nov % performance but I expect many to turn in a top 10 worthy performance with so many year-end predictions that comes to a close.

I am going for the

Marc Chiang — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 12:48:38 -0500

I am going for the prize...unsuccessfully so far.

Both November and December

Eric Hill113600 — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 14:37:00 -0500

Both November and December should be released today. Everything has been repaired on the reporting side. Going forward, all monthly reports for top % gainers should be released in a more timely manner.

Thanks for being so patient.

Eric

Will the November top ten

David Kuan — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 11:13:49 -0500

Will the November top ten gainer report be released? Looks like a decision has been made to forego the prize award.

Suffice to say, I was

David Kuan — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 22:10:16 -0500

Suffice to say, I was somewhat spooked sometime back when the database got "corrupted". I had a negative networth with inability to cash out nor place new bets (coz all the active bets were also messed up). Must have been a rather nasty bug.

On the "serious firepower" note, I truly hope that TIS activity will increase as a result of the new push. Feel free to use me as a sounding board on ideas or feedback on the push (before and after).

To answer your prize question, IMHO, prize matters to some and matters not to others. As for me, it is becoming practically impossible to be top gainer as it would require significant large bets with favorable % to swing a significant gain. I did appreciate the Kindle, however. That said, the little "carrot" does serve some purpose in the end (No other prediction market sites are rewarding top gainer of the month). Regardless of TIS ultimate decision on this, it is still nice to be able to evaluate how well one did against other members each month. It allows one to gauge one's performance and adapt one's strategy.

@David, you've asked a

Eric Hill113600 — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 14:39:13 -0500

@David, you've asked a really good and simple question. It has a rather complex answer, however, that I want to address. I'll be posting a longer response here later today (I just got back from a week's vacation and am trying to catch up). Back in a bit!

@TIS, sorry for posting this

David Kuan — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 13:01:27 -0500

@TIS, sorry for posting this comment here but there are no other available means aside from a feedback email.

I can't help but seeing decreased activity at this site, both on commentaries to news/articles as well as prediction market. According to Compete.com, the unique visitors has dropped by a whopping 50% (from Jul '08 to Nov '08). On the other hand, Predictify.com, after being in the doldrum from March '08 to Sept '08, rocketed to almost 4x monthly unique visitor by Nov '08 (surpassing TIS). What's the deal?