The Industry Standard - Ad spending will shift from impression to performance-based marketing in 2008 - Comments

A message to the prediction

Ian Lamont — Wed, 27 May 2009 10:06:47 -0400

A message to the prediction market members who bet on this prediction: We are going to try to unwind this decision. The initial wording was too ambiguous, and gave no concrete criteria to judge it.

Anyone who lost $S on the ad spending prediction, could you please contact me by June 5, 2009? Email ian (at) thestandard and write "Prediction Market" in the subject line. Be sure to include your username in the body of the message, and let me know that you participated in this prediction.

Thanks,

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont

David: My sincere apologies

Ian Lamont — Tue, 26 May 2009 16:53:36 -0400

David: My sincere apologies for the delay.

To be perfectly honest with you, this prediction should never have been published in its original form. It's ambiguous and it probably would have been better to not judge it at all than attempt to work out these criteria after the fact.

Unfortunately, there is no mechanism in the PM tool that can be used to automatically unwind the bets and cancel the prediction. I am working with my developer to find a suitable and fair solution to the active participants. Please bear with us while we figure it out.

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont

@ian, why still no update? I

David Kuan — Mon, 25 May 2009 22:40:52 -0400

@ian, why still no update? I am rather frustrated that this is being ignored.

@Ian, it has been about 2

David Kuan — Mon, 04 May 2009 10:11:53 -0400

@Ian, it has been about 2 weeks now. Have you caught up yet?

Let me take a look, David.

Ian Lamont — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 09:15:19 -0400

Let me take a look, David. I've inherited many of the prediction market responsibilities, and I am trying to catch up -- hope to have an answer for you within the next few days.

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor

@TIS, 2 more weeks passed

David Kuan — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 23:51:49 -0400

@TIS, 2 more weeks passed with no response :(

@TIS, is there a reason why

David Kuan — Mon, 06 Apr 2009 17:29:33 -0400

@TIS, is there a reason why the objection to the judgment is being ignored? This is rather unsettling!

In fact, the 5-6% gain on

David Kuan — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 08:29:36 -0400

In fact, the 5-6% gain on performance-based was at the expense of CPM (which means marketing $ shifted from impression to performance-based) in line with the prediction verbiage.

@TIS, the original

David Kuan — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 14:04:41 -0400

@TIS, the original prediction verbiage was sparse and offered no clarity on any specifics besides performance-based vs CPM/impression. To make a judgment then offer clarification on the specific spirit of the prediction is not right. As such, judgment resulted in nearly $650K loss (which I am protesting) rather than a significant gain.

I have made my significant bets based on IAB's definition which according to IAB report, it clearly shows a gain of 5-6% in performance-based ads compared to CPM in 2008 (page 13 and 14).

@TIS, can this judged

David Kuan — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 15:01:31 -0500

@TIS, can this judged already? Performance-based marketing has shifted to 52% compared to impression-based marketing which is at 44% for 2 consecutive years. References for judgment had been set via Judge Early post.

As it turns out, the change

David Kuan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:42:03 -0500

As it turns out, the change started in 2007 and continues in 2008. The latest numbers from 2008 confirms that the 2007 decisions is not a fluke occurrence but is now indeed the trend (aka "the shift"). Applicable IAB reports had been submitted to TIS for judgment.

Absent of measurable

David Kuan — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 09:51:38 -0400

Absent of measurable criteria and the obvious challenge TIS will have to close/judge this, I am surprised that there have been 66 bets/cashouts. Personally, I am going to stay away from this one.

This was one of the first

Bradley Baker — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 03:15:59 -0400

This was one of the first predictions created. It was written before TIS bothered with such things as measurable criteria. :)

I don't envy TIS staff figuring out how to close/judge predictions like this one.

@Matt, I echo Shiv comment.

David Kuan — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 16:19:52 -0400

@Matt, I echo Shiv comment. There is no mention within the prediction the basis to be used for judgement. Source of metric? Also, what quantifiable "shift" will deem a favorable judgement?

How exactly will you measure

Shiv Bhandari — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:49:42 -0400

How exactly will you measure this prediction?

Ad spending will shift from impression to performance-based marketing in 2008

Matt McAlister — Fri, 25 Jan 2008 15:18:07 -0500

Judgment made on March 30, 2009: This prediction was not clarified when it closed. For the purposes of this prediction, performance-based advertising refers to search advertising and impression-based refers to display ads. The Internet Advertising Bureau reported that search ad spend grew 45% in 2008 from 42% the previous year. However, display ad spend remained the same at 33% from 2007 to '08. Based on these stats, this prediction did not come true. -- The Industry Standard

As marketing budgets tighten in 2008, advertisers will put a premium on performance.

They will demand greater accountability which media companies will respond to with a wider range of performance-based advertising programs.

Advertisers will spend less and less on inefficient brand campaigns and shift remaining budgets to direct marketing instead.