The Industry Standard - The iPhone's AT&T exclusivity extended to 2011? - Comments

The community was right --

Ian Lamont — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:33:51 -0400

The community was right -- it didn't happen. Judged negative.

It will be interesting to see if there are any iPhone-related developments at next week's Apple event, however:

http://www.thestandard.com/news/2009/08/31/apple-slates-sept-9-event-ipo...

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard

Here's a link to a comment

Tay Bass — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 16:58:05 -0400

Here's a link to a comment today by AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson about iPhone exclusivity-

http://daringfireball.net/linked/2009/07/23/att-ceo-exclusive

This prediction is looking more and more unfavorable.

Contrary to common belief,

David Kuan — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:43:12 -0400

Contrary to common belief, MMS is not entirely standard. There are several MMSC deployments in the US and most are based on proprietary implementation. For iPhone to support MMS, it will have to support an MMS client compatible with AT&T MMSC to ensure proper interworking and supported media. Additionally, it needs to undergo extensive intercarrier testing (domestic and international).

Interesting comment at

Ian Lamont — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 16:48:02 -0400

Interesting comment at today's WWDC keynote by Apple's Phil Schiller:

"And you can share it with anyone, I can tap share and send it in an email... if my carrier supports it, I can send as an MMS."

(Source: http://www.engadget.com/2009/06/08/phil-schiller-keynote-live-from-wwdc-...)

If my carrier supports it? Was that a little poke at AT&T (which won't support MMS until later in the summer), a reference to international carriers, or something else?

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard

The iPhone's AT&T exclusivity extended to 2011?

David Kuan — Thu, 07 May 2009 18:35:58 -0400

AT&T's exclusive deal to be the carrier for the iPhone in the United States has been a boon to the company. In the second half of 2008, AT&T gained more than four million new iPhone subscribers.

But the exclusive deal is reported to end in 2010, according to "people familiar with the matter." If AT&T wants to keep its grip on the next-generation versions of this revolutionary device, it needs to convince Apple to extend the exclusivity arrangement.

It's going to be tough -- Apple wants to get its products in the hands of more people, and many customers are too loyal to another carrier, unable to get good AT&T coverage, or wary of AT&T's reputation. There has been a lot of interest in our prediction about a Verizon iPhone being announced by the end of June 2009, as well as an earlier prediction around MacWorld 2009.

On the other hand, AT&T has shown it will go out of its way to work with Apple's demands on the iPhone. The latest rumor: AT&T will drop the monthly service plan price by $10 when a new iPhone model is reportedly released next month. Another potential reason for Apple to agree to extend its exclusivity deal with AT&T is the cost associated with developing and rolling out an iPhone that works on other carriers' networks (see discussion here and here).

Apple would also have an incentive to announce such an extension soon rather than later: Too many potential customers are waiting on the sidelines, hoping that Apple will open up to other carriers such as Verizon. By making it clear that AT&T is the exclusive iPhone partner for longer, there will be a strong incentive for the holdouts to come in from the cold.

PREDICTION: Reports say that AT&T is in talks with Apple to extend its exclusivity agreement for iPhone from 2010 to 2011. The key criteria for this prediction is that a formal announcement by AT&T and/or Apple will be made that states AT&T's iPhone exclusivity has been extended to some point in the year 2011. For favorable judgment, the announcement must be made by the end of August 2009.

Note that an announcement of an expiry date in 2011 will not count as a favorable criteria unless it is made clear that this date is an extension of the original expiry date of the exclusivity arrangement.