The Industry Standard - U.S. automakers file for bankruptcy? - Comments

Judged, based on news that

Ian Lamont — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:32:25 -0400

Judged, based on news that Chrysler has indeed filed for bankruptcy:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/01/business/01auto.html?hp

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont

I don't think June is

Ian Lamont — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 14:38:49 -0400

I don't think June is possible for Chrysler, and maybe not even for GM. I'll keep an eye peeled this weekend and judge the prediction if an announcement is made for Chrysler.

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont

@David, I was considering

Lev Danilov — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:51:27 -0400

@David, I was considering these news, but the question for me was When, rather than If. I was speculating on whether these automakers would hold on until at least the 1st of June. With every hour, though, it is getting unlikelier.

NEW YORK (AP) — With Chrysler LLC appearing increasingly likely to seek bankruptcy protection, members of Congress are calling for an orderly process that saves the company from liquidation.

...

Chrysler would file for bankruptcy even if it reaches an agreement with its lenders and Fiat, but if the deals fall through, the company would begin the process of liquidation, the Journal reported, citing several people familiar with the matter.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hktj5QRHLZw1POuhJFjybM...

@Lev, consider an

David Kuan — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:15:39 -0400

@Lev, consider an opportunity to make a huge gain betting against. However, before you do that, you might want to consider the following news ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30366383/
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090413/bs_nm/us_autos_gm
http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5363ZM20090407?feedTy...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124041946006244177.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/20/AR200904...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123841609048669495.html

@David, I see that no matter

Lev Danilov — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 22:42:44 -0400

@David, I see that no matter how much cash I throw, you keep bringing it back up! :)

haha, now this just made me

Lev Danilov — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 18:47:27 -0400

haha, now this just made me smile! What a shrewd negotiation technique from the US Treasury Department! (last paragraph)

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Treasury Department has made a new offer to Chrysler LLC's lenders, asking banks and hedge funds that hold $6.9 billion in debt to forgive $5.4 billion and take a 5 percent stake in a Chrysler-Fiat alliance, according to two people familiar with the matter.

The offer was made to the group late Tuesday, these people said. The people asked not to be named because the negotiations are private.

The Treasury Department's proposal is in response to the lenders' offer earlier this week to forgive $4.5 billion in Chrysler debt in exchange for a 40-percent stake in the alliance.

(source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Business-apf-15018931.html?.v=1)

I am holding 2000 shares of

kevin — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:47:41 -0400

I am holding 2000 shares of GM bought at $2.00 a share and current value $1.66+/-. I can not believe an icon such as GM could go bankrupt; or am I really that naive? Usually I would buy more shares of a stock falling that I believe will recover... But, in this case I am not sure anymore.

Here's a case where I think

Eric Hill113600 — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 19:28:00 -0400

Here's a case where I think GM is going to have to do it, but not by the defined date of June 1. Possibly some time in June, however.

On top of that, according to

Eric Hill113600 — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 19:25:27 -0400

On top of that, according to the AP, GM is going to be shutting down most of its factories this summer for 9 weeks now instead of two.

At the same time, I've been

Ian Lamont — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:01:55 -0400

At the same time, I've been reading lots of stories in the WSJ about bankruptcy, and today GM said it won't be able to make a June credit payment:

GM: We won't make June debt payment

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont

U.S. to give Chrysler, GM

Lev Danilov — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 00:58:40 -0400

U.S. to give Chrysler, GM new aid:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE53K0KU20090421

@David, great point. But

Yi-Wyn Yen167771 — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 19:34:09 -0400

@David, great point. But since it's already active, we'll just have to let it run. So place those bets!

The prediction,

David Kuan — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 16:50:04 -0400

The prediction, http://www.thestandard.com/predictions/u-s-big-three-automakers-remain-i..., already covers this.

U.S. automakers file for bankruptcy?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 14:21:44 -0400

General Motors is reportedly in preparations to file for bankruptcy. Under bankruptcy protection, GM would form a new company with its most successful assets. The new CEO of GM, Fritz Henderson, publicly admitted that a bankruptcy filing is a possiblity, but would prefer to restructure outside bankruptcy court.

Chrysler is in worse shape. Moody's reports that Chrysler is at a higher risk to file for Chapter 11 than GM. The ratings agency puts the likelihood of at least one U.S. automaker filing for bankruptcy at 70%.

Ford is the only company among the Big Three to not take federal bailout loans so far.

On March 30, the Obama administration denied additional bailout money to both Chrysler and GM. President Barack Obama ordered Chrysler to complete a proposed alliance with Italian automaker Fiat in 30 days. GM was given 60 days to put together a restructuring plan with significant cost savings.

Prediction: Chrysler and/or General Motors files for bankruptcy protection by June 1, 2009. Only one of the two automakers needs to file for this prediction to be judged favorably.