The Industry Standard - U.S. job loss rate hits 9% by Oct. '09? - Comments

Judged: 9.4%, according to

Ian Lamont — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 10:07:21 -0400

Judged: 9.4%, according to the NYT, but the rate of loss is slowing:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/06/business/economy/06jobs.html?hp

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/the_standard

9.2% is the consensus number

David Kuan — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:49:47 -0400

9.2% is the consensus number expected to be reported on June 5. If so, favorable judgment criteria would be met.

Bureau of Labor reported

David Kuan — Fri, 08 May 2009 09:44:17 -0400

Bureau of Labor reported 8.9% for April.

The interesting thing to me

Ian Lamont — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:35:12 -0400

The interesting thing to me is some of the largest states in the nation have already crossed the 10% level, including California. However, some smaller population states still have relatively low unemployment. I strongly recommend people check out the following interactive map to see how the jobs picture is playing out in individual counties over time:

Slate: When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear?

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard
twitter.com/ilamont

@Marc, the judgment criteria

David Kuan — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 19:04:10 -0400

@Marc, the judgment criteria says "...will rise to 9.0% by October 2, 2009". That means, early judgment is indeed possible.

@Yi-Wen Yen, what if the

Marc Chiang — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 00:57:19 -0400

@Yi-Wen Yen, what if the unemployment rate rises above 9% prior to Oct 2, 2009, would the bet be judged early as favorable?

Official numbers for March

David Kuan — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 08:37:48 -0400

Official numbers for March 2009 is 8.5%

Forecast for March '09 is

David Kuan — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 20:51:38 -0400

Forecast for March '09 is 8.5%. The forecast is typically accurate +/- 0.1%.

U.S. job loss rate hits 9% by Oct. '09?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 01:24:54 -0400

At the start of the year, analysts estimate the U.S. unemployment rate will hit 10% by the end of 2009. The monthly unemployment has steadily risen since September 2008, when investment bank Lehman Bros. imploded.

Here are the monthly figures from the Labor Department:

Sept. 2008 6.2%

Oct. 2008 6.6%

Nov. 2008 6.8%

Dec. 2008 7.2%

Jan. 2009 7.6%

Feb. 2009 8.1%

Prediction: The monthly unemployment rate will rise to 9.0% by October 2, 2009. This prediction will be judged based on the Labor Department's monthly report. The last monthly data that can be used for judgment is September, and the Labor Dept. is scheduled to report numbers on Oct. 2.