The Industry Standard - Amazon Kindle 2.0 on sale Feb. 9, 2009? - Comments

I don't really see the

Alex Moskalyuk — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 21:29:17 -0500

I don't really see the difference between online and offline store. We know Wii is available, even though it's very unlikely that my local Best Buy has it today.

See my point above in reply to Lev - what kind of pre-order gap would you tolerate to consider the product available, when it was just announced? 14 days? 28 days? 3 months? 6 months? 12 months? 10 years?

@Lev: You can buy a

Alex Moskalyuk — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 21:26:50 -0500

@Lev: You can buy a transgalactic spaceship (from me) today. It will be available by 2109, but I will take your money today.

So does that mean we've entered the era of private transgalactic spaceships, which are now available?

@Yo, starting Jan. 9, Amazon

Yi-Wyn Yen167771 — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 16:44:12 -0500

@Yo, starting Jan. 9, Amazon has begun taking your hard-earned money if you place an order for the Kindle 2. I could see you having a stronger case if Amazon was a brick-and-mortar store and you couldn't get your product that day.

Since there is no exception

David Kuan — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 14:45:21 -0500

Since there is no exception placed on pre-order or shipping date, I am in agreement with TIS judgment.

@Edward, twice you stuck to the guns and came out ahead with all-in bets. Very gutsy!
@Lev, I assume you came out ahead quite a bit as well.

Congrats to all who won $ on this bet. Despite my last "against" bet, I still came out ahead overall :)

@Lev, thanks. Awesome! It

Edward Beckham — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 14:26:24 -0500

@Lev, thanks. Awesome! It was only logical that if they announced they were going to make it available same day!

Of course it is. You can buy

Lev Danilov — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:46:21 -0500

Of course it is. You can buy it today, therefore it's on sale. The fact that it can only be shipped on the 24th has nothing to do with the fact that it is on sale.

@Edward, congrats on your S$100k gain!

Why was this judged correct?

Alex Moskalyuk — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:18:44 -0500

Why was this judged correct? Kindle 2.0 is not on sale as of Feb 9th.

"This item will be released

Lev Danilov — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 10:24:08 -0500

"This item will be released on February 24, 2009.
Pre-order now!"

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00154JDAI/ref=amb_link_83626371_2?pf_r...

According to Amazon.com's

Edward Beckham — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 15:20:40 -0500

According to Amazon.com's Search Tool. The Top-Searches related to Kindle include:
kindle 2.0 release date
kindle 2.0
kindle 2
kindle 2 0

With regard to Availability. It is Important to note the language that Amazon uses on their current Kindle page:
-Please ORDER KINDLE NOW to reserve your place in line.
-We prioritize orders on a first come, first served basis.

There is no question that when we see them announce tommorrow that they are going to allow people to order the same day (putting the shipping date at Feb 23 (2 weeks). And it is likely we will see the same type of language on the Kindle 2 page as the language above.

@Edward, I hope you are

David Kuan — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 01:56:08 -0500

@Edward, I hope you are right. But your suspicion on me driving the % down is wrong. Here is my bet history on this (full disclosure):

Feb 07 2009 Bet against at 48% odds S$199,975.84 <-- When I see article with Feb 24 info
Feb 07 2009 Cash out at 71% odds S$1,212,627.66 <-- When I got cold feet again on a hunch
Feb 04 2009 Bet in favor at 70% odds S$200,190.10 <-- Added as rumor sentiments increases
Feb 02 2009 Bet in favor at 61% odds S$199,941.11 <-- ROI still ok for additional bet
Feb 02 2009 Bet in favor at 47% odds S$349,963.48 <-- Got in at bargain %. Significant ROI
Feb 01 2009 Bet in favor at 70% odds S$149,995.72 <-- Added as rumor sentiments increases
Jan 31 2009 Bet in favor at 75% odds S$99,995.52 <-- Change of heart. Decided a small token bet
Jan 28 2009 Cash out at 84% odds S$309,893.00 <-- My original hunch of later sale date
Jan 27 2009 Bet in favor at 54% odds S$199,972.98

As you can see, "ROI vs Risk" plays a significant role on my betting decision. With the news about Feb 24 out, the risk went way UP thus making the bet not as attractive at it was previously. The last token bet (ROI of 90%) is made based on gains on cash outs of this bet so risk is minimal.

IMHO, an all-in bet is way too much risk to outweigh the potential ROI (a 99% networth risked at 30%+ potential gains).

If Amazon doesn't post a

Lev Danilov — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 01:48:41 -0500

If Amazon doesn't post a pre-order page for Kindle 2 on the Feb 9th, the day of its announcement, I will start seriously wondering what was going through the managers' minds when they picked that strategy. It just does not make any sense not to accumulate your pre-orders as early as you can. So, judging by how successful Amazon has been for the past decade, I assume that they will not make such a silly mistake, now.

One last thought. The

Edward Beckham — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 18:23:27 -0500

One last thought.

The prediction is that Amazon will release the Kindle 2 for sale on Feb 9.
All Amazon has to do is make it possible for pre-orders to be placed = released for sale.

The consensus with regard to Feb 24 relates to shipment availability, not ordering availability.

@David
I highly suspect that you are looking to drive the community consensus down a bit further before you possibly jump back in on this prediction. According to your comments in the Kindle 2.0 or No? article, you got in Feb 2 at below 40%. You sold off early Feb 7 when it was at around 87%.
If you can get it down to around 40% again and jump back on board at the last minute, well, you'd have made a pretty penny off this prediction.

My recommendation to the community is to buy in now while it is low. If you are in - DO NOT SELL, you are going to lock in the losses that David's reversal has caused. I am 100% positive that Amazon is going to make it possible to order the Kindle 2 on Feb. 9!

THINK: Logically, does it make ANY sense for Amazon not to play off the hype that is going to come with Monday's announcement? They will certainly make the Kindle 2 available on their site the same day (Feb 9) - and they will begin shipping out on the 24th! The fact that it will be available for order on Feb 9 means that the prediction is fulfilled.

@David, I am staying in

Edward Beckham — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 17:42:21 -0500

@David,
I am staying in 100%

The 24th is the SHIPPING availability date - this does not preclude the ability for consumers to place orders online prior to the 24th.

If Amazon puts a page up tommorrow to allow consumers to order/buy the Kindle 2.0, then we will see a favorable judgment.

It is absurd to think that Amazon is going to make a super hyped-up announcement Monday and NOT have a page up online to start taking orders for the Kindle 2.0

If it is available to be ordered (even if it is 2 weeks prior to shipment), then it is being sold.

1) It will be announced on Monday, Feb. 9
2) Amazon will have a Kindle 2.0 page online to allow consumers to place orders on Mon., Feb 9
Therefore,
Favorable Judgment is Imminent.

@Edward, my hunch has proven

David Kuan — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 12:09:09 -0500

@Edward, my hunch has proven me right more times than not. Sure enough, the reported date is now February 24 and not Feb 9. I expect the consensus to drop further given the extended coverage on the 24th date without any dispute. So, will you stay all-in?

The new Kindle 2.0 does look sweet. If only they do away with the physical QWERTY keyboard and somehow make a touchscreen keyboard, it would be even sweeter.

PC World reports: Leak:

Edward Beckham — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 10:52:40 -0500

PC World reports: Leak: Amazon Kindle 2 Pictures and Pricing

Crunch Gear headlines: Purported Kindle 2 images and price leaked

Looks like the Kindle 2.0 will be immediately orderable on the Amazon site, with a shipping availability of 2 to 4 weeks. Note, the current Kindle page has been updated AGAIN by Amazon with the note: Expected to ship in 2 to 4 weeks. This is all part of the hype, it is going to be announced on Monday - there are too many stories, photos, leaks out there. If it wasn't going to happen, Amazon would have made it clear already that it is not the Kindle 2 announcement.

@David,
You should get back in on this one while the community consensus is still low. Logically you know that Amazon is going to capitalize on the Hype that their announcement creates. They're going immediately post the Kindle 2 on their site to take orders and the page will say: "Expected to ship in 2 to 4 weeks." If it can be ordered, it is being sold. I really think that you are going to regret this one (hopefully you didn't waste money betting against it).

Amazon Kindle 2.0 on sale Feb. 9, 2009?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 14:17:03 -0500

Judgment made on February 9, 2009: Amazon's new Kindle 2 is available for pre-order starting Feb. 9 with a shipping date of Feb. 24. In other words, the Kindle 2 is on sale, which 70% of the community got right. -- The Industry Standard

Original prediction: Bloggers are reporting that Amazon will introduce a new version of the Kindle, the electronic book that Oprah deemed her favorite new gadget.

Says Seattle Times blogger Brier Dudley, "Why else would the company be holding a big press conference with Chief Executive Jeff Bezos at the Morgan Library & Museum in New York on Feb. 9?" Hmmm. Interesting.

Prediction: Amazon releases its highly-anticipated next-generation Kindle for sale on Feb. 9.

Image: Atduskgreg's/Flickr