The Industry Standard - November '08 prediction market top percentage gainers - Comments

You would maintain your

Eric Hill113600 — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 20:43:06 -0500

You would maintain your status either way we go - don't worry about that. Your historical data will be used in some form or fashion (if we change it at all).

Wiping the slate clean?

David Kuan — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 22:10:03 -0500

Wiping the slate clean? Ouch! After all those months of "hard" work :(

A simple solution to control distortion of consensus is to set a max bet limit per prediction (i.e. 500K). Having many more predictions in play would help. Yi-Wyn is doing a fine job with recent daily additions. Also, here is a suggestion ... adjust the formulas to weigh a new unique bet (i.e. different member) more than additional funds to a member's bet. (i.e. suppose I have placed a $200K "AGAINST" bet but decides to add $200K to it. The consensus would drop less than if a new member's "AGAINST" bet of $200K. It may be more complicated in the background that it may seem.

Incidentally, we're working

Eric Hill113600 — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 11:46:29 -0500

Incidentally, we're working on the next version of the prediction market. It is going to take a few months to roll out, but when it does... let's just say we're pretty excited to get it out as fast as we can, but it's going to take a little time.

That being said, we are considering wiping the slate clean when that day arrives (some people have become so powerful with prediction market 1.0 that the "consensus" is easily distorted).

I'll be sure to keep an open channel of communication before any drastic changes, however.

I want to point out that the

Eric Hill113600 — Sat, 17 Jan 2009 11:44:10 -0500

I want to point out that the % gain column is built with a margin for everyone, so the calculation actually takes that into consideration when calculating the percentage for ranking. There are different calculations being performed behind that scenes that are weighing "scores" that are not public, and these scores factor into the percentages. Regardless, I think the net worth gains are interesting for people to see, even if the score % gain is slightly different.

Not sure if this clarification helps or confuses, but wanted to put that out there for all the math geeks that instantly recognized the percentage didn't seem to add up. It does, just behind the scenes.

Wow! I was expecting

David Kuan — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:54:04 -0500

Wow! I was expecting somewhere in the lower half of top ten. Quite surprised actually. Yet, despite this, Bradley's juggernaut networth is still not within reach :(

I am eager to see December numbers. I think I might have topped my Nov % performance but I expect many to turn in a top 10 worthy performance with so many year-end predictions that comes to a close.

November '08 prediction market top percentage gainers

Eric Hill — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 12:55:49 -0500

November 2008's top % gainer was Brendan Davis slotting a respectable 63% monthly gain. Props to David Kuan for pulling into second place with his hefty networth.

Name	Networth start	Networth end	Overall score % change
Brendan Davis	S$79549.76	S$195,117.49	63%
David Kuan	S$16,108,657.76	S$22,375,297.29	39%
Angela Wiez	S$93,218.74	S$150,438.16	34%
Marc Chiang	S$1,261,161.28	S$1,627,307.69	28%
Lev Danilov	S$502,375.30	S$618,644.02	21%
Stephane Cheikh	S$180,515.22	S$215,455.32	15%
Tom H	S$625,970.95	S$722,820.47	14%
Sandy Smith	S$101,444.50	S$120,944.18	13%
John Curran	S$662,734.76	S$752,585.60	13%
Will Hunt	S$276,785.00	S$317,534.82	12%

Congrats, Brendan!