The Industry Standard - Job loss rate rises to 8% or higher for January? - Comments

More on job loss

chleoku — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 19:18:12 -0500

Stepping in Jan 09, we have

WealthAlchemist — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 19:17:04 -0500

Stepping in Jan 09, we have the highest layoff rate since 2002:

http://www.wealthalchemist.com/Blog/2009/02/january-2009-layoffs-highest...

Looks like the numbers for

Melissa Chang — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 08:58:34 -0500

Looks like the numbers for January are posted - 7.6% unemployment rate in January. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Wow! Pelosi said 500M jobs

David Kuan — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 11:40:19 -0500

Wow! Pelosi said 500M jobs loss every month DOH!!!!

Today, ADP reported decrease

David Kuan — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 09:01:42 -0500

Today, ADP reported decrease of 522,000. Nonfarm payroll now stands at 112,702,000. The decrease represents under 0.5% (522K/112,702K). It is now a given (99%+) that the rate will not hit or break 8% for January.

Current consensus for the

David Kuan — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 13:42:24 -0500

Current consensus for the Jan '09 unemployment rate is 7.5%

According to this, consensus

David Kuan — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 16:23:41 -0500

According to this, consensus of ADP Employment Change for Jan '09 is showing a -525K (relative to -693K in Dec '08). This is a precursor to the LBO reported metric. If the consensus is on track, then the unemployment rate increase should be less than 0.5% (which would put the rate under 8%).

I agree with David on when

Yi-Wyn Yen167771 — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 12:58:05 -0500

I agree with David on when this should be judged. The numbers I provided were the initial numbers that come out at the start of the month vs. the revised ones from the Labor Dept.. I'm assuming people are betting on the stats I've used, so it wouldn't be fair to change it midway.

Latest jobless claims

David Kuan — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 21:51:23 -0500

Latest jobless claims numbers came in at around 588,000 which is far from the 800,000 needed to bump unemployment to 8%

URL:

John Curran — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 19:45:49 -0500

URL: http://www.abcnews.go.com/Business/CEOProfiles/story?id=6731375&page=1

Miserable Monday: More Than

John Curran — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 19:45:00 -0500

Miserable Monday: More Than 40,000 Layoffs
Major Companies From Communications to Retail, More Americans Lose Jobs

Again, as already noted by David, it's the timing of the actual layoffs
which occur in January which actually matters.

/John

@Yi-Wyn. there are numerous

David Kuan — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 17:33:31 -0500

@Yi-Wyn. there are numerous announcements of layoffs in the news but as far as this prediction is concerned, the ones that matters are the ones occurring in January 2009. Most layoffs occurs in phases over time.

@Garrick, IMO, I believe

David Kuan — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 17:31:39 -0500

@Garrick, IMO, I believe that the prediction should be judged on the initial of January number (on February). Any revisions comes in March or later should matter not. Otherwise, bets would be frozen until March unnecessarily.

The Labor Department often

Garrick Hileman932530 — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 15:21:57 -0500

The Labor Department often revises the actual unemployment rate after they release their initial figure, so we need to watch this during judgment.

A sobering look at job

Yi-Wyn Yen167771 — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 13:12:31 -0500

A sobering look at job losses.

Layoffs Keep Growing—Is Your Firm On the List?
http://www.cnbc.com//id/28750173

Job loss rate rises to 8% or higher for January?

Yi-Wyn Yen — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 13:25:21 -0500

Judgment made on February 6, 2009: Unemployment rose 7.6% for January. The prediction was wrong (thankfully), and the majority of the TIS community got this right. -- The Industry Standard

Original prediction: The unemployment rate rose to 7.2% for December with 524,000 jobs lost, the highest in 15 years. Total job losses in 2008 reached 2.6 million, the most since 1945 when 2.8 million were out of jobs at the end of World War II.

Here's a look at the monthly unemployment rate in the U.S. since the financial crisis started unraveling in September:

September 2008 6.1%

October 2008 6.5%

November 2008 6.7%

December 2008 7.2%

Analysts say the U.S. is on track to reach a 10% unemployment rate this year. The Labor Dept. is expected to report January data within the first week of February.

Prediction: As companies report quarterly earnings this month, expect more layoffs to happen and the January unemployment rate jump to 8%.