The Industry Standard - McCain, Palin win at least 265 electoral votes? - Comments

@Larry (link), at last

Eric Hill113600 — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 12:25:10 -0500

@Larry (link), at last count, over 119 million votes were cast. An historic day.

Actually, now that the dust

Eric Hill113600 — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 12:00:00 -0500

Actually, now that the dust is beginning to settle, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ was nearly completely accurate. They currently show the exact same total for Obama (349) as the NY Times. Assuming North Carolina holds it's razor thin lead for Obama, 538 will have missed the final total by only 15 electoral votes. Pretty impressive. Most of us presumed a tad more would fall into the McCain/Palin totals in the end. An incredible night last night.

It depends on who wins the

Hal9001 — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 13:53:13 -0500

It depends on who wins the East Coast. Once the networks start shooting their mouths off at 9PM ET, the other Time Zones have from 1-5 hours (Hawaii) to decide to vote to "correct" the East Coast Votes. Also the antiquated "Winner Takes All" Electoral College Delegate allocations means that even if a candidate loses in Electoral Districts their EC Delegates still get assigned to him/her. The proper way is to just give 2 ECs to the State winner and one EC to the winner of an Electoral District (ie: The way Congress gets elected). Under the current system it is possible for the "Winner" to get less than 40% of the popular vote or win a number of large states (getting all their ECs) and have only 30% of the actual district votes.

@Bradley, I think you're

Eric Hill113600 — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 13:19:16 -0400

@Bradley, I think you're probably pretty close with that assessment. My money would be on 210-225.

Incidentally, we're working on plans to develop multiple outcome bets.

I learned about intrade.com

Stephen Zimmett — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 09:40:33 -0400

I learned about intrade.com on Hardball the other night. Has Obama with 364 electoral votes to McCain 176. Perhaps they are right!!

Bush doesn't stand a chance

emjaysea — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 22:35:13 -0400

Bush doesn't stand a chance in hell.

/I'm sorry, did I say Bush?
//Same difference.
///Game point, bros, dems control everything after Nov. 4.
////Get used to it.

I do think amusing that this

Bradley Baker — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 22:28:18 -0400

I do think amusing that this prediction is trading lower than the chances of Obama not being president (ie McCain receiving 270+ (or, in theory, a few ultra-unlikely possibilities)).

And recognize that I share at least some blame in that, although I pushed them to the same level when I dropped a bunch into both predictions a few days ago.

I'm feeling less comfortable about IN, but more comfortable about MO. I still think they split. GA is more in play now, but I think it still stays in McCain's column. I still have this contest at 174-364.

Dear Ian, no matter who

Abraham Lincoln — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 21:42:41 -0400

Dear Ian,

no matter who wrote that, I got that from another website.

But how true those words are.

"Abraham Lincoln": I am

Ian Lamont — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 16:40:55 -0400

"Abraham Lincoln": I am afraid that these seven phrases have been erroneously attributed to you. According to a State of Illinois web page, there were 10 phrases, not seven, and they were penned by Rev. William Boetcker decades after Lincoln died.

Ian Lamont
Managing Editor
The Industry Standard

The sound of a true

gary sinclear — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 14:08:55 -0400

The sound of a true republican. Hahahahaha. It must have taken a lot of guts to say the last line.

@Eric, wasn't I the one that

David Kuan — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 13:38:26 -0400

@Eric, wasn't I the one that posted the link in Comment #9? Anyways, has TIS thought a little more about my 60 seat prediction? This one should be an interesting play with Ted Stevens case, the chances are now sufficient for bets on both sides of the fence (which makes for a fun prediction).

@TriMarkC, thanks for the

Eric Hill113600 — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 12:19:12 -0400

@TriMarkC, thanks for the link. I had found electoral-vote.com earlier this year, but forgot about it.

Cheers.

You cannot help the poor by

Abraham Lincoln — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 09:50:07 -0400

You cannot help the poor
by destroying the rich.

You cannot strengthen the weak
by weakening the strong.

You cannot bring about prosperity
by discouraging thrift.

You cannot lift the wage earner up
by pulling the wage payer down.

You cannot further the brotherhood of man
by inciting class hatred.

You cannot build character and courage
by taking away people’s initiative and independence.

You cannot help people permanently by doing for
them, what they could and should do for themselves.

~ Abraham Lincoln

Sorry, I didn't realize my

TriMarkC — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 22:16:03 -0400

Sorry, I didn't realize my comment would not link directly to the comment I was replying to - the site in question is http://www.electoral-vote.com/.

Re: the site you noted - I

TriMarkC — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 22:14:50 -0400

Re: the site you noted - I reviewed it, since always looking for neutral information. But unfortunately, the site itself says that it gets far more Democrats than Republicans, in the order of 8-to-1. so, not a reasonable site for neutral comparisons. Appears they don't even try to norm their data to account for the heavy one-sidedness of data. Oh well.

McCain, Palin win at least 265 electoral votes?

Eric Hill — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 12:30:08 -0400

Judgment: Not even close, which the community correctly predicted. Prediction closed, and judged at 0%. -- The Industry Standard

Original prediction: Depending on the source, current polls (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) currently show the Obama/McCain race relatively close with Obama leading an average of +7.2 points.

Polls, however, have been known to be wrong.

Some posit that as many as 10-15% of likely voters have not firmly committed to either of the choices available. Under these conditions, it’s still possible for McCain to accomplish a stunning defeat; the contest could be much closer than what many polls show.

Prediction: John McCain will win at least 265 electoral votes in the 2008 US presidential election, according to the CNN.com website. Using the CNN electoral map application, this total could include wins for McCain in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada. We’ve also added New Hampshire to McCain’s list. To be clear, McCain may win any states in order to achieve the 265 threshold. The states mentioned is how we derived our figures.

Let the community decide. Place your bets below.