The Industry Standard - Pandora cheats death, converts to subscription model - Comments

I just logged on to

Adam — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 09:51:34 -0700

I just logged on to Pandora...it asked me for a credit card. I just left Pandora. Sad, but true.

Did anyone notice that

David Kuan — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 13:31:15 -0800

Did anyone notice that Pandora is now offering videos on its website?

As a Pandora listener I find

Laurence — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 07:29:42 -0800

As a Pandora listener I find it to be good news that the legislative environment cracked the door open for them. This type of innovation is the core of a healthy marketplace. Pandora lets me both play background music of interest and learn about types of music I'm not familiar enough with to explore.

I do find that the available tracks are not very diverse - it's mostly current popular music rather than interesting and unusual (to an American) sounds of traditional music from around the world. Try finding even two works for an Erhu (a Chinese violin-like instrument) on Pandora. There's no significant money in 'serious' music so it is understandable.

Even with that limitation Pandora has let me create a list of tracks and artists to buy in the future. Next they should find some way to show how they are creating sales which may not pass directly through their site - I'll probably buy full CDs on Amazon rather than just downloading a few mp3s (the sound quality of standard mp3s is compromised by compression).

Today is December 1 and

David Kuan — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 06:55:16 -0800

Today is December 1 and Pandora is still alive and kicking. Unfavorable judgment can now be made for this prediction.

It's everywhere, David, and

Eric Hill113600 — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 16:57:00 -0700

It's everywhere, David, and it's going to get worse before it gets better.

http://kara.allthingsd.com/20081017/what-yahoos-looming-costs-cuts-actua...

and

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/10/pandora-layoffs-cap-a-bloody-week

Pandora laid off 20

David Kuan — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 14:54:34 -0700

Pandora laid off 20 employees (14%)

Truly done deal. Pandora

David Kuan — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 09:14:04 -0700

Truly done deal. Pandora will now survive to negotiate more favorable terms with SoundExchange via Digital Management Association given that House passed HR 7084 on September 28 and Senate passed HR 7084 on September 30.
http://blog.pandora.com/pandora/
http://technologyexpert.blogspot.com/2008/09/internet-radio-bill-passes-...
http://www.betanews.com/article/Pandora_sees_relief_ahead_in_net_radio_f...
http://www.iphonefootprint.com/2008/10/pandora-radio-and-other-webcaster...
http://www.gadgetorama.com/news/news_details.php?gorid=4143

Because this judgment

ryan peters — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 10:35:23 -0700

Because this judgment outcome has since morphed, people opposed to this prediction should be recognized. Serious thought needs to be put into the fact Congress (not the consumer) has been the ones who "Subscribed" to Pandora. Hope this tells everyone something....

Through Congress's actions, you are witnessing the spirit of U.S. capitalism at work. More specifically the statutes of protection for a emerging U.S. market. Once this is completed Pardora will be more nimble to scale globally. Running free from it's coral, Pandora will 1st graze in the U.K. to learn more about the music preferences of our global listening community. Douglas Leone of Sequoia Capital, as I quoted above, will soon be using his dry erase marker, to discuss violent growth on his trusty White Board.

My objective for this article addressed "cheating death" and finding a work around besides having the end-user incur unneeded subscription fees.

After all -- this is what the masses wanted and they got it..

This is a done deal. Even

David Kuan — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 09:10:02 -0700

This is a done deal. Even NAB (the only opposition) is now supporting the bill. There is really no reason for Senate to not pass the bill.

http://friendfeed.com/e/ba635011-00e1-a844-3a3b-404a4225e0b1/RT-somafm-N...
http://somafm.com/blogs/rusty/2008/09/nab-drops-opposition-to-hr-7084.ht...
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2008/09/internet_radio_reprieve.ht...
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/pandora_lives_a_little_longer_house...

Latest ... House passed the

David Kuan — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 08:50:35 -0700

Latest ... House passed the bill. HR 7084 is now headed to the Senate for vote. Expectation is that it will pass as well and fairly soon too.

http://blog.pandora.com/pandora/archives/2008/09/congressional_u_1.html

Aaah.... I misunderstood.

David Kuan — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:34:17 -0700

Aaah.... I misunderstood. Thought "null and void" means no winners no losers on active bets.

Right - exactly. I'm not

Eric Hill113600 — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:29:30 -0700

Right - exactly. I'm not suggesting it should be taken down. I'm suggesting that this now appears to be very likely judged at 0% if the legislation passes. That's my opinion, at least.

IMO, I understand this

David Kuan — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:21:03 -0700

IMO, I understand this prediction to have 2 criteria that MUST be met
1) Pandora remains in business AND
2) Converts to a subscription model AND
3) Judgment date is end of November
Since the criteria for favorable judgment are not all met, it translates into an unfavorable judgment. Of course, TIS has the rights to override it by voiding it. Just my 2cents.

Simply put, this is a

Eric Hill113600 — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 20:09:44 -0700

Simply put, this is a prediction that is saying Pandora will become a subscription-based service. If this legislation passes (based on my limited understanding of it) I would assume the business would not be under extreme pressure to change their business model.

@Eric, why would it be null

David Kuan — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 19:52:21 -0700

@Eric, why would it be null and void if "saved" by legislation? Since judgment criteria is not met, should it be rendered an unfavorable judgment? Just wondering as I do not have a position on this prediction.

Pandora cheats death, converts to subscription model

The Standard — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 11:55:35 -0700

Judgment on Dec. 1, 2008: Pandora has managed to keep the lights on, in large part due to the Senate approval of HR7084, a.k.a. the Webcasting Bill. Thus, Pandora avoided moving to a subscription-based model to survive. Judged at 0%. -- The Industry Standard

Original prediction: Pandora, the popular personalized Internet radio application, has been viewed as an innovator in streaming audio for years. However, due to demands for high-priced royalties from SoundExchange, Pandora’s current business model is in serious jeopardy.

The demands against Pandora are apparently so high, either Congress will need to intervene or Pandora will need to change (or die).

One possibility for Pandora to stay in business is to become a subscription-based service. Charging a flat monthly fee, or even a usage fee, seems reasonable considering that the service is so well catered to one’s musical tastes – and it is currently commercial free. Moving to an advertising based model would certainly be viewed as certain death as well.

Will Pandora’s idealism, and SoundExchange’s greed, prevent the two parties from settling on a deal? We hope not. But there could be a way out.

This is a prediction that Pandora will avoid “pulling the plug” and convert to a subscription-based model.

This prediction will stay open through the end of November assuming Pandora stays in business that long. If Pandora is forced to close down, or attempts any other business strategy (e.g. new forms of advertising), this prediction will be judged unfavorably on or before the end of November, depending on how this story develops. It is possible that Pandora and SoundExchange will broker a deal for a much lower royalty charge, but that is not a consideration in this prediction (nor would it help Pandora to pay for said royalties).