The Industry Standard - Yahoo!/Google ad deal fails regulatory muster? - Comments

@David - Thanks! It's been a

Daniel Fort — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 06:38:51 -0800

@David - Thanks! It's been a long time coming.

@Daniel, my bad and congrats

David Kuan — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:12:50 -0800

@Daniel, my bad and congrats for breaking the $5M mark!

@David - I did indeed mean

Daniel Fort — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:35:44 -0800

@David - I did indeed mean less gray in a towards 100% direction.

@David, I think you and

Eric Hill812251 — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 11:00:34 -0800

@David, I think you and Daniel are saying the same thing.

Based on the interesting report revealing the way the U.S. government is considering Google a near-monopoly now, this looks like a done deal.

Judged at 100%.

@Daniel, I am a little

David Kuan — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 10:01:05 -0800

@Daniel, I am a little confused by your comments (which suggests a 0% judgment on a technicality). You have a FOR bet and would stand to make sizable gains with a 100% judgment.

Nevertheless, my opinion is that it is clear that federal government threat to file a suit is a sign of non-approval regardless of whether Google/Yahoo abandons the deal prior. As such, a 100% judgment should be rendered for this prediction.

Less gray:

Daniel Fort — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 07:59:56 -0800

Less gray: http://amlawdaily.typepad.com/amlawdaily/2008/12/hogans-litvack.html

They called it off three hours before officially "failing regulatory muster".

I don't think anything else

Daniel Fort — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 06:43:34 -0800

I don't think anything else is coming on this.

A little more..."To Yahoo's

Eric Hill812251 — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:17:26 -0800

A little more..."To Yahoo's dismay, Google backed off to avoid a challenge from the U.S. Justice Department, which said it would sue to block the Yahoo deal to preserve competition in Internet advertising." Could be viewed as a "failed to meet regulatory muster". Definitely leaning more towards a 100% judgment. Unfortunate gray area.

That is why I asked early on

David Kuan — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 11:21:39 -0800

That is why I asked early on how this prediction is to be handled if deal is abandoned. No response was received to address that.

While the deal wasn't

Daniel Fort — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 10:47:01 -0800

While the deal wasn't "thrown out", it's certainly not going to pass regulatory muster ("This prediction will be judged after Yahoo and Google officially receive the blessing of the U.S. federal government.") - which I assume would be the requirement for success. Also, I think we can assume Google feels any acceptable deal to them would in fact be "thrown out" or else they wouldn't have walked.

So I'd say it's definitely not a 0%, it's arguably a 100%, and it's certainly a gray area.

This is kind of a tricky

Eric Hill812251 — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 10:06:00 -0800

This is kind of a tricky one, guys.

If you read today's reports, they say, "The U.S. Department of Justice was planning to block Google's proposed advertising deal with Yahoo, leading to Google's announcement Wednesday that it was backing out, according to Yahoo."

In my mind, that would render a favorable judgment towards, "Yahoo!/Google ad deal fails regulatory muster?" However, I could see an argument made that due to the way Bradley stated, "This is a prediction that the partnership deal will be thrown out by the DoJ and/or FTC," - which didn't specifically happen - some could ask for a 0% judgment.

I'm leaning towards favorable judgment due to the news reports today, but am curious about your opinions.

Well.. this one can now be

David Kuan — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 08:30:11 -0800

Well.. this one can now be judged. Google has just announced decision to abandon the deal with Yahoo.

Looks like those with active

David Kuan — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 18:13:26 -0800

Looks like those with active bet on this one will have to wait a tad longer as Yahoo/Google revise deal plan and resubmit to DOJ.

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSTRE4A26OW20081103?feed...

Indeed, as the WSJ reports,

Eric Hill812251 — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 10:00:46 -0700

Indeed, as the WSJ reports, this could be judged/determined next week.

http://www.washingtonpost.com

David Kuan — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 05:14:07 -0700

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/31/AR200810...

Yahoo!/Google ad deal fails regulatory muster?

Bradley Baker — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 21:17:26 -0700

Judgment on Dec. 4, 2008: In a rare moment, the community actually got this one wrong. Based on recent news reports, it has been revealed that the deal was scrapped, "...just three hours before the Department of Justice planned to file antitrust charges to block the pact, according to the lawyer who would have been lead counsel for the government." Judged at 100%, for having "faiied regulatory muster" per the prediction's intent. -- The Industry Standard

Original prediction: Various groups, including most notably Microsoft, are likely to express concerns to the Department of Justice about the recently-announced advertising partnership between Yahoo! and Google.

Those companies have publicly stated that they don't believe regulatory approval is necessary, but that in a show of good faith they intend to seek it prior to the commencement of activities under the deal.

This is a prediction that the partnership deal will be thrown out by the DoJ and/or FTC.

There has been some recent movement in this story here. This prediction will be judged after Yahoo and Google officially receive the blessing of the U.S. federal government.