The Industry Standard - Prediction: Joost will announce a Web-based viewer by November 1, 2008 - Comments

If that is the case, why is

David Kuan — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 10:13:18 -0700

If that is the case, why is there no response officially on the Joost Google Group discussion? Just sounds like yet another misdirection.

I was told by a Joost

Matt — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 06:51:12 -0700

I was told by a Joost employee that I know they will have something ready for a closed beta test by the end of this month probably after the Olympics ...because they know that beta testers are all watching the Games and not TV reruns .

I am beginning to suspect

David Kuan — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 08:21:15 -0700

I am beginning to suspect that Joost web-based viewer is all but vaporware and PR-speak for a few reasons ...

1) Joost continues to release and support new version of its OS-specific client.
2) Video stream architecture is based of the BitTorrent-like model which has the ability to stream from individual machines to another with the smarts of segmentations and reassemblies. This is rather difficult to do via browser within an HTTP/HTTPS session (BTW I am no expert on this).
3) Volpi's comment of "weeks away" turned into "months" with no follow-up comments on delays.
4) Responses to queries in the Joost Groogle Group (which replaces Joost defunked Forum) were far and few in between aside from the vague "still working it". Last comment on this was dated Aug 4.

As such, I am changing my position that prediction should NOT be closed yet until Joost revealed definite plans as dictated by the prediction (which I would consider a formal schedule, a demo viewer and/or enough details of the web-viewer designs to show due diligence on the effort).

@TIS, after much waiting, I

David Kuan — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 15:00:56 -0700

@TIS, after much waiting, I am now with the opinion that this prediction indeed should be closed and judged favorably. Additional justification can be found at http://groups.google.com/group/joost-forums/browse_thread/thread/fe1c7f8... where Joost has officially reconfirm that web-based viewer is in the works (which satisfies the criteria for judgement). It would seem that definitive plans (i.e. schedules) will not be made public until it is ready for primetime (even as a beta).

Well, if that is indeed the

David Kuan — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 01:54:35 -0700

Well, if that is indeed the case, I had a for bet on Jun 17 when I posted this http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/joost_ceo_we_ve_figured_it_out_this_t...
and judgement would have been rendered then. TIS probably needed something more definitive details. Then again, I am all for a favorable judgement rendered :).

The prediction says, "This

Shiv Bhandari — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 00:19:55 -0700

The prediction says, "This doesn't mean that the Joost Web service will be available by November 1, only that the company has announced definite plans to develop such a service." Forget PLANS to DEVELOP, the CEO himself is saying that there are plans to RELEASE the product (which clearly means that the product is in development). Also, note that the product does not have to be released before November. It can be released 5 years from now, all the prediction is concerned about is that "Joost will ANNOUNCE a Web-based viewer by November 1, 2008." There are sufficient sources, both official and from the main stream media, that prove that Joost has indeed announced this.
Even if you construe the quotes merely as tentative plans to develop the product (which they are not) it's still good enough for the prediction.
We're arguing over semantics here.

An indication that it is in

David Kuan — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 13:48:50 -0700

An indication that it is in the works in not sufficient for judgement. A definitive plan that meets the judgement date is required for favorable judgement. At the moment, this is an easy money bet but ROI is at least 2 months away.For now, plenty of other plays available. I had position on this some time back but with so little activity, it was like dead money for a long time.

Why is this prediction still

Shiv Bhandari — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 13:07:42 -0700

Why is this prediction still open?

www.tvtechnology.com/pages/s.0066/t.14629.html
"Joost, the streaming video service from the founders of Skype, for which users have had to download its client software, said it’ll make a Web-based version available soon and begin streaming more live content."

"That product (Web-based version) is weeks away from launch, CEO Mike Volpi tells us"
www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/joost_ceo_we_ve_figured_it_out_this_time

www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/joost-launching-in-china-but-when-will-it-re...
"We're told the new Web-based version will launch later this summer."

Most importantly, Bradley's link to Joost's official blog is good enough. What's the plan, are we waiting for Joost to shut down?www.thestandard.com/predictions/joost-doesnt-reach-second-birthday-may-09

Note that release isn't

Bradley Baker — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 23:56:20 -0700

Note that release isn't required for this prediction to be judged a success, but merely an announcement. Should definitely come in time, even if the note currently posted on the Joost website (http://blog.joost.com/2008/06/joost_forums_going_down.html) isn't considered sufficient.

Actually, looking at what Joost's posted on that page "Some of you might have heard that we’re developing a web-based version of Joost. Well, it’s coming and we’re excited about it" and the criteria listed above "This doesn't mean that the Joost Web service will be available by November 1, only that the company has announced definite plans to develop such a service." I'm not sure we haven't already fulfilled the requirement to close.

CLEARLY they've announced they're definitely planning to develop such a service. I suppose it hinges on one's definition of "definite plans".

In any case this looks to be easy money. Possibly very short-term, possibly mid-term.

Very interesting, David.

Eric Hill684799 — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:45:57 -0700

Very interesting, David. Joost needs this so badly. I wonder if they are too late? Talk about a dramatic shift from being on top of the world (in the media) to playing catch up. Hulu is showing everyone how it should be done these days. YouTube is even taking notice (Hulu has an actual revenue stream).

According to this sneak

David Kuan — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 21:06:35 -0700

According to this sneak preview, it shows a Joost web-based viewer (require a plug-in install on the browser) that will be released in September ahead of prediction closure date of November 2008. The preview seems to be working fairly well. I anticipate a launch early September if not earlier.

Weeks instead of months.

David Kuan — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 07:54:50 -0700

Weeks instead of months. This looks like almost a done deal (way ahead of November).

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/6/joost_ceo_we_ve_figured_it_out_this_t...

Prediction: Joost will announce a Web-based viewer by November 1, 2008

The Standard — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 07:29:35 -0700

Joost currently operates as a client application that viewers must download before they can watch programming. Joost's Web-based competitors -- Hulu, YouTube, Brightcove, etc. -- don't have this restriction, and are better able to gain new viewers and market share. Joost will be forced to announce plans to create a Web service that allows viewers to watch Joost video through a Web browser before November 1, 2008, without downloading a separate client application (although some viewers may have to download the latest Flash or media plug-in for their browsers). This doesn't mean that the Joost Web service will be available by November 1, only that the company has announced definite plans to develop such a service. This prediction will close approximately one week before the judgement date, or when an announcement is made, whichever comes first. (Note: This prediction is part of The Industry Standard special feature, Opinion: 10 'Net services that will succeed, and 10 that will probably fail. To see the related article, click here. To read the rest of the special feature, and see the many related predictions, click here.)