The Industry Standard - Google's stock price will be below $500 per share by end of Q1 - Comments

"var msg = "Are you sure you

Janice I Clark — Thu, 29 May 2008 13:58:20 -0700

"var msg = "Are you sure you want to Log Off?" Pretty sure, the answer is no

Sorry for a dumb question,

Regina A Castillo — Thu, 29 May 2008 13:58:00 -0700

Sorry for a dumb question, but I really can't get, what CAUBE is?...

Bradley-- As you noted,

Josh Dilworth270852 — Mon, 31 Mar 2008 21:43:53 -0700

Bradley--

As you noted, didn't make much of a difference in the end, but we appreciate your input and are making a really conscientious effort to be extra clear, especially on predictions written by members of the the community who haven't necessarily been through the learning curve we have these first 6 weeks of operation. We hope that we show improvement ongoing.

Thanks for bearing with us!

Here's the text from the

Bradley Baker — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 08:01:06 -0700

Here's the text from the somewhat similar $700 proposition:

"Google's stock price, currently trading just above $500 per share, has been pummeled recently since reaching a high of $741.29 in late 2007. Will it be equal to or greater than $700 per share on April 1, 2008?"

THAT is clear that it's talking about the price at the end of the quarter. Had this proposition been similarly worded we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Could raise questions if it's flirting around $700 on April 1st, but closes below that threshold, after breaking it during intraday trading. Not going to happen, but still a good example of insufficiently well-written text.

Neither the title nor the

Bradley Baker — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 07:57:45 -0700

Neither the title nor the judging requirement statement include that, however.

I'd say that the text and title are subordinate to the judging criteria. Had the judging statement been "This prediction requires the stock price to be on or below $500.00 (US) AT the closing bell on March 31, 2008." then I would agree with you. With the current text of that statement this proposition should be closed and judged at 100%.

It's only going to matter for the time value of the money and opportunity cost in other propositions, as there's no way GOOG is going to gain 16% in less than 2 weeks. As a philosphy-of-how-this-site-is-run issue, however, it would be really nice to gain some clarification here.

You're ignoring the "will

Chris Sternal-Johnson — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 06:35:26 -0700

You're ignoring the "will close the quarter below $500" bit, though.

I would say that waiting

Bradley Baker — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 09:14:09 -0700

I would say that waiting until March 31 would require language similar to "at the closing bell on March 31, 2008." Using the word "by" in place of "at" should trigger this event at any point in time between when it starts and the end-date.

If we have a proposition that Yahoo! will accept Microsoft's offer by March15th, we would consider it a success if the acceptance is made on March 14th. If we have a proposition that Microsoft will release an interactive 3D technology ON February 29th, then releasing said technology on Feb 28th or March 1st would result in failure.

Prepositions matter. And they have meaning.

It does say, "by the closing

Eric Hill113600 — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 21:30:00 -0800

It does say, "by the closing bell on March 31, 2008." Does that not mean we wait until March 31 and see what the price is when the bell rings? Tom, was that your original intention? We assumed you were looking to predict (and make a bet) that the stock price would be under $500 on March 31st, hence why it hasn't been closed early.

I'm not sure I understand

Bradley Baker — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 20:15:48 -0800

I'm not sure I understand why this hasn't settled yet. Surely with GOOG trading at $433 that qualifies as "the stock price below $500.00 (US) by the closing bell on March 31, 2008." Noting in that criteria requires that we wait until the quarter ends.

Google's stock price will be below $500 per share by end of Q1

Thom Hoge — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 19:30:07 -0800

GOOG closed on 3.31.08 at $440.47; the community was correct. --The Industry Standard

Days of $700's are gone and we should expect to see Google's stock's hoover around $500, but will close the quarter below $500.

This prediction requires the stock price to be on or below $500.00 (US) by the closing bell on March 31, 2008.