Bradley -- thanks for the clarification -- that is a really good point. To be more specific, the prediction is for Microsoft to cut i.e. reduce its bid. "Cut" does NOT mean walking away entirely. We went back and re-read the original SAI piece that this prediction references, and that articles assumes the same. Conceivably, MSFT going away entirely would be viewed by Yahoo! brass as a good thing (given what we've heard around the blogosphere). But regardless, the idea behind this prediction is that MSFT will call Yahoo's bluff -- and if MSFT really truly walks away, it is abandoning any leverage that it has in calling said bluff. Sooo. . .that's a log way of saying that MSFT walking away entirely (without having first offered a reduced price for Yahoo) will not be grounds for favorable judgment. Now, there is an unlikely scenario that MSFT will walk away from the deal, and then come back after a long-ish period of time with a reduced bid as compared to the original one. As long as this happens before the prediction close, it will still be grounds for favorable judgment. That is, "cutting" the bid is the same as killing the first bid and making a new and separate bid for a lower price, regardless of the amount of time passing between the two events, so long as they happen by May 5. Thanks for helping us out!
Bradley -- thanks for the clarification -- that is a really good point. To be more specific, the prediction is for Microsoft to cut i.e. reduce its bid. "Cut" does NOT mean walking away entirely. We went back and re-read the original SAI piece that this prediction references, and that articles assumes the same. Conceivably, MSFT going away entirely would be viewed by Yahoo! brass as a good thing (given what we've heard around the blogosphere). But regardless, the idea behind this prediction is that MSFT will call Yahoo's bluff -- and if MSFT really truly walks away, it is abandoning any leverage that it has in calling said bluff. Sooo. . .that's a log way of saying that MSFT walking away entirely (without having first offered a reduced price for Yahoo) will not be grounds for favorable judgment. Now, there is an unlikely scenario that MSFT will walk away from the deal, and then come back after a long-ish period of time with a reduced bid as compared to the original one. As long as this happens before the prediction close, it will still be grounds for favorable judgment. That is, "cutting" the bid is the same as killing the first bid and making a new and separate bid for a lower price, regardless of the amount of time passing between the two events, so long as they happen by May 5. Thanks for helping us out!