I'm not sure how that can be accomplished.

What's the difference between trying to create a daytrading wave to ride and feeling the community is too far to one side on the issue, jumping on it, and then when the community shifts towards the other direction, getting back off? While Aaron's expressed motivations are counter to the idea of predicting outcomes, the described behavior could be completely justified. Other than through first-person posts it's not clear how rationale can reliably be devined.

Part of the problem might be that the total money in the system has been growing rapidly (assumption, but warranted I think). What made sense for tuning when nearly everyone was near the starting amount of S$100,000 might not make sense with a few people in the S$900k-S$1.5mil range (or my former position (yesterday) around S$2.5mil) and a dozen more at S$500k+. Finding a mechanism that works for both and will continue to work as the largest portfolios continue to grow is decidedly non-trivial. We do need SOME responsiveness or every prediction just sits near 50% no matter how clear the eventual resolution becomes. Finding that happy medium sweetspot.... not so easy. Especially given that it likely changes over time.

Going back to this prediction, rather than general site discussion for a moment.... Does comScore have a regular release schedule? Do we have any indication that there will be updated information prior to the closing of this prediction? Without any such release we're still with the most recent information, which, of course, leaves MySpace on top, correct? So part of this prediction is whether or not new information will come out in the next 3(ish) days. And THEN whether or not facebook has passed.