The ultimate danger for computer manufacturers is not that build-your-own replaces build-to-order - for most people it's not worth the effort to grab a screwdriver or open a case. The danger is that brands like Dell and Compaq and Gateway would erode to the point where they're almost meaningless, to the point where people really do think of their computers as Intel plus Microsoft, or AMD plus Linux.
At the logical extreme of that trend, you have a shift in purchasing behavior for computers, away from the car-buying model (buy something expensive, replace it every few years) to something that looks more like a stereo-buying model (upgrade the amplifier, buy better speakers, add a subwoofer). Over the years, the parts change, one at a time, but the stereo, per se, is never replaced. Besides a price break, the stereo model alleviates the angst of instant obsolescence - you don't have the experience of buying a $2,000 system only to discover something faster and cheaper a few weeks later. It gives the consumer more control, and more flexibility. And to that extent, it destabilizes computer manufacturers' business model. Even as sub-$1,000 Net appliances push computers downmarket, the high end (with its high margins) is being nibbled away by do-it-yourselfers who want speed on a shoestring.
So Compaq is not happy if the Lego approach to computers takes hold. But who wins? For Intel, it's a double-edged sword. On one hand, people are likely to upgrade CPUs more often than they replace computers. But if they're comparing benchmarks on the Web, all those expensive "Intel Inside" advertisements are far less effective. AMD, on the other hand, has a lot to gain from this - it is already the favored brand among the kustom komputerati, who like Athlons because they're fast, cheap and easy to overclock (AMD makes a stern face and wags its finger about this, even as "outlaw" overclocking boosts its cachet). Second- and third-tier manufacturers in Taiwan also benefit because their products are reviewed alongside the big brands and evaluated on merit.
But as this trendlet gathers steam, the biggest winner is the consumer. Not just the first-world consumer who can pay Dell to ship the box, but also the third-world consumer, who doesn't have that luxury, for whom a few hundred dollars makes the difference between owning a computer and not owning one.
In places like China, Russia, India and Brazil, putting together a computer - or paying your cousin to do it - may become the norm, if it hasn't already. There are millions of gearheads in these places with time on their hands and spare parts in the back. Gentlemen, start your engines.
J.C. Herz is the founder of Joystick Nation, a consulting firm in New York.
