Back in 1996, only the brave and foolish would have made predictions about how technology would change our lives over the next five years. And only the remarkably prescient would have been right. Still, none of that stops analysts today from making forecasts about how things might look half a decade from now.
Technology and the Internet will become more integral in American life - but by how much? If predictions are accurate, three-fourths of Americans will regularly access the Net - up from slightly less than half today. And almost half of U.S. households will go online using a high-speed connection, making the promise of streaming media more likely to become reality. But access to the Net won't be widespread - barely more than 10 percent of the world's population will use the Internet in the next five years.
At Ovum, bullish analysts forecast that an astounding nine in 10 Americans will use cellular phones or other wireless devices, up from 40 percent today. And they anticipate that half of all Americans will access the Net through these gadgets. All told, 31 percent of the world's population could be using wireless devices in 2005.
How we spend our time will change, too: Americans will clock almost 70 percent more hours on the Net than they do now, says research firm Veronis Suhler. As a result, consumers are expected to make more Web purchases. Annual consumer e-commerce should jump almost 500 percent to $269 billion in 2005, according to Jupiter Research.
Businesses and universities will also strengthen their online presence. Sixty-three million Americans will use the Web at work in 2005 - a 47 percent increase from today. And almost nine out of 10 colleges or universities will offer courses over the Net. However, don't expect a significant number of consumers to change their banking and trading habits. According to IDC, only 11 percent of U.S. Web users will bank online in 2005, up from 8 percent today. And a mere 9 percent will trade stocks on the Net.
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