I'm not predicting a new generation of corporate giants. There's little chance that the emerging Internet-telecommunications and entertainment complex will consolidate to the point where almost everyone is working for MCI-WorldCom-Yahoo-Fox, Microsoft (MSFT)-GE-NBC, Disney-Amazon-ABC or Time-Warner-AOL-CNN. But hold on to your hat and watch your wallet. As Internet stock prices settle down to earth, we're going to see some very big deals.
Yet even as the industry consolidates, there's still no reason to expect fewer jobs. To the contrary, the vast economies generated by consolidation will lead to faster growth, meaning even more Internet-related jobs. When the nation's auto companies went from 350 to the Big Three, auto employment expanded twentyfold.
Notwithstanding my reassurances, dot-com employees are understandably jittery, and managers who never had to let anyone go are stressed.
Who ever thought there'd be layoffs among the dot-coms? Look, nobody promised you a rose garden. If you wanted job security you'd be pushing paper in some giant bureaucracy in suburban Washington, D.C. Internet stock prices will continue to surge, then plummet, then surge again. Pay will ride a roller coaster. Job responsibilities will morph from one week to the next. And there are going to be some layoffs. You may lose your job tomorrow, maybe even this afternoon. Or you may have to close down an entire division.
This is the price for being in the most dynamic part of the new economy, doing creative stuff, taking big risks. It goes with the territory. There are going to be some bad days, and some horrendous weeks. But I guarantee you that even more of them will be fabulous.
Robert B. Reich is an author, professor and former secretary of labor. His latest book, The Future of Success, will be published this winter.
